Almonds: hit and miss in California
March 13, 2023 at 11:48 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Production 22% down
Based on present estimates the INC reckons that global almond production declined by 22% in 2022/2023 as compared with 2021/2022. Global supplies are also 5% down at 4.366 billion pounds (1.981 million mt). Production estimates for the United States range at 2.475 billion pounds (1.123 million mt) for 2022/2023, which is 15% down on the 2.92 billion pounds (1.325 million mt) produced in 2021/2022.
Adverse weather conditions in spring and summer also prompted the INC to reduce the production estimates for Spain and Portugal by 20%. Prospects are, by contrast, much better in Australia, despite the 2022/2023 almond season being highly challenging due to wind, hail and flood damages. The Almond Board of Australia expects production to rise to 156,200 mt in its pre-season crop estimate for 2023/2024, which is 8.6% up on 2022/2023.
|
Global almond production (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
1,325,400 |
1,122,700 |
-15.3% |
|
Australia |
124,439 |
143,805 |
15.6% |
|
Spain |
105,000 |
60,000 |
-42.9% |
|
Turkey |
18,000 |
25,000 |
38.9% |
|
Portugal |
15,000 |
20,000 |
33.3% |
|
Italy |
8,500 |
22,000 |
158.8% |
|
Tunisia |
16,500 |
15,000 |
-9.1% |
|
Morocco |
13,000 |
13,000 |
0% |
|
Chile |
12,000 |
12,000 |
0% |
|
Greece |
4,000 |
10,000 |
150% |
|
Iran |
4,000 |
4,000 |
0% |
|
Others |
30,000 |
30,000 |
0% |
|
Total |
1,675,839 |
1,477,505 |
-21.9% |
|
Almond Board of California, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE and DESCALMENDRA, Aegean Exporters’ Association, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association and other INC sources, INC March 2023 |
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US exports 5.5% up
At 245.740 million pounds the US almond industry has witnessed yet another record as monthly shipments hit their strongest for any February so far ranging 23% higher than the 199 million pounds shipped in February last year. Total shipments for the season have climbed to 1.517 billion pounds and exceed last year’s shipments by 5.5%. At 188.2 million pounds exports are 29.2% up on last year and remain the driving force. Although domestic shipments picked up in February, they are still trailing 5.5% behind last year. India remains the most important export destination, followed by China/Hong Kong and Spain. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates are strong and have more than doubled to Turkey.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
445,136 |
420,786 |
-5.5% |
|
India |
214,207 |
224,068 |
4.6% |
|
Spain |
98,891 |
115,454 |
16.7% |
|
China/Hong Kong |
91,341 |
91,634 |
0.3% |
|
UAE |
58,668 |
85,954 |
46.5% |
|
Germany |
59,458 |
62,054 |
4.4% |
|
Netherlands |
50,882 |
48,613 |
-4.5% |
|
Turkey |
30,450 |
46,783 |
53.6% |
|
Italy |
45,083 |
46,042 |
2.1% |
|
Japan |
52,196 |
43,583 |
-16.6% |
|
Others |
291,849 |
332,371 |
13.8% |
|
Total |
1,438,161 |
1,517,342 |
5.5% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-28/02 |
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Rain in California vs little rain in Spain
Prospects for production are far from good in California this year. Trouble is the wet winter conditions experienced in California in recent weeks, which is far from good for the bloom period. Analysts, however, agree that it is too early to tell which impact this will have on production and some state production may turn out better than expected. Expectation also is that water supplies will be less of an issue this year.
Growers in Spain would, by contrast, welcome more rain. Although it has recently rained in western Andalusia and Extremadura in southern Spain, this is by far not enough to compensate for the dry conditions in winter. Cold weather conditions have, however, delayed flowering by 15-20 days. Good news here is that flowering has taken longer, which gives pollination a better chance. Some early varieties have already started to lose their flowers and form fruits, whereas the late flowering varieties are only starting to open the first flowers and very late flowering varieties are showing swollen buds.
Temperatures have, however, risen recently and flowering is now expected to progress more quickly. Yet, frost remains an issue and some damages have been reported for early flowering varieties such as Desmayo largueta and Marcona almonds in southern Spain. There is, however, no need to panic. As many packers are off the market in California and uncertainties persist over the impact the prolonged winter weather will have on US production many suppliers have raised their prices in Europe and offers are difficult to obtain for US varieties. Others, however, prefer to keep it cool and maintain relatively firm prices.
|
Almonds |
||
|
Conventional |
EUR/kg |
USD/kg |
|
Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.30 |
4.59 |
|
Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.70 |
5.01 |
|
Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural Spain |
6.85 |
7.31 |
|
Largueta, 12/13 mm, natural, Spain |
6.45 |
6.88 |
|
Marcona, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
7.05 |
7.52 |
|
Guara, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
4.45 |
4.75 |
|
California, standard, natural |
3.85 |
4.11 |
|
Almonds, blanched, diced, USA |
4.60 |
4.91 |
|
Organic |
||
|
Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
7.20 |
7.68 |
|
Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain |
7.50 |
8.00 |
|
Diced, blanched, Spain |
8.85 |
9.44 |
|
FCA Spain |
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View more
- price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
- price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
- price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
- more price charts
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