Nuts

Almonds: hit and miss in California

March 13, 2023 at 11:48 AM , Der AUDITOR
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REUS/SACRAMENTO. Although weather conditions are worse than ever in California, analysts are confident that things may turn. The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) reckons that global production declined in 2022/2023. February has been the strongest month for US almond shipments this season so far as the recently issued position report reveals.

Production 22% down

Based on present estimates the INC reckons that global almond production declined by 22% in 2022/2023 as compared with 2021/2022. Global supplies are also 5% down at 4.366 billion pounds (1.981 million mt). Production estimates for the United States range at 2.475 billion pounds (1.123 million mt) for 2022/2023, which is 15% down on the 2.92 billion pounds (1.325 million mt) produced in 2021/2022.

Adverse weather conditions in spring and summer also prompted the INC to reduce the production estimates for Spain and Portugal by 20%. Prospects are, by contrast, much better in Australia, despite the 2022/2023 almond season being highly challenging due to wind, hail and flood damages. The Almond Board of Australia expects production to rise to 156,200 mt in its pre-season crop estimate for 2023/2024, which is 8.6% up on 2022/2023.

Global almond production (mt)

Country

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

USA

1,325,400

1,122,700

-15.3%

Australia

124,439

143,805

15.6%

Spain

105,000

60,000

-42.9%

Turkey

18,000

25,000

38.9%

Portugal

15,000

20,000

33.3%

Italy

8,500

22,000

158.8%

Tunisia

16,500

15,000

-9.1%

Morocco

13,000

13,000

0%

Chile

12,000

12,000

0%

Greece

4,000

10,000

150%

Iran

4,000

4,000

0%

Others

30,000

30,000

0%

Total

1,675,839

1,477,505

-21.9%

Almond Board of California, Almond Board of Australia, AEOFRUSE and DESCALMENDRA, Aegean Exporters’ Association, Greek Nuts & Fruits Trade Association and other INC sources, INC March 2023

US exports 5.5% up

At 245.740 million pounds the US almond industry has witnessed yet another record as monthly shipments hit their strongest for any February so far ranging 23% higher than the 199 million pounds shipped in February last year. Total shipments for the season have climbed to 1.517 billion pounds and exceed last year’s shipments by 5.5%. At 188.2 million pounds exports are 29.2% up on last year and remain the driving force. Although domestic shipments picked up in February, they are still trailing 5.5% behind last year. India remains the most important export destination, followed by China/Hong Kong and Spain. Shipments to the United Arab Emirates are strong and have more than doubled to Turkey.

US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs

Destination

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

USA

445,136

420,786

-5.5%

India

214,207

224,068

4.6%

Spain

98,891

115,454

16.7%

China/Hong Kong

91,341

91,634

0.3%

UAE

58,668

85,954

46.5%

Germany

59,458

62,054

4.4%

Netherlands

50,882

48,613

-4.5%

Turkey

30,450

46,783

53.6%

Italy

45,083

46,042

2.1%

Japan

52,196

43,583

-16.6%

Others

291,849

332,371

13.8%

Total

1,438,161

1,517,342

5.5%

California almonds, 01/08-28/02
Shelled and inshell

Rain in California vs little rain in Spain

Prospects for production are far from good in California this year. Trouble is the wet winter conditions experienced in California in recent weeks, which is far from good for the bloom period. Analysts, however, agree that it is too early to tell which impact this will have on production and some state production may turn out better than expected. Expectation also is that water supplies will be less of an issue this year.

Growers in Spain would, by contrast, welcome more rain. Although it has recently rained in western Andalusia and Extremadura in southern Spain, this is by far not enough to compensate for the dry conditions in winter. Cold weather conditions have, however, delayed flowering by 15-20 days. Good news here is that flowering has taken longer, which gives pollination a better chance. Some early varieties have already started to lose their flowers and form fruits, whereas the late flowering varieties are only starting to open the first flowers and very late flowering varieties are showing swollen buds.

Temperatures have, however, risen recently and flowering is now expected to progress more quickly. Yet, frost remains an issue and some damages have been reported for early flowering varieties such as Desmayo largueta and Marcona almonds in southern Spain. There is, however, no need to panic. As many packers are off the market in California and uncertainties persist over the impact the prolonged winter weather will have on US production many suppliers have raised their prices in Europe and offers are difficult to obtain for US varieties. Others, however, prefer to keep it cool and maintain relatively firm prices.

Almonds

Conventional

EUR/kg

USD/kg

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

4.30

4.59

Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain

4.70

5.01

Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural Spain

6.85

7.31

Largueta, 12/13 mm, natural, Spain

6.45

6.88

Marcona, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

7.05

7.52

Guara, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

4.45

4.75

California, standard, natural

3.85

4.11

Almonds, blanched, diced, USA

4.60

4.91

Organic

Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain

7.20

7.68

Valencia, +14 mm, natural, Spain

7.50

8.00

Diced, blanched, Spain

8.85

9.44

FCA Spain

View more
price chart, almonds, natural, +14, Valencia
price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR
more price charts

Attached Files

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price chart almonds blanched diced California
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price chart almonds natural Valencia 12-14 Spain

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