Almonds: inventories are the problem
September 15, 2025 at 11:54 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Domestic shipments at multi-year low
Domestic shipments slumped to a multi-year low of 48.45 million pounds in the first month of the season. Exports only nominally compensated for this with a 3% rise to 109.354 million pounds thereby bringing the grand total to 157.804 million pounds, which is 6% lower than last year.
Exports up
In India, the 41% decline in shipments came as a surprise to the industry as Select Harvest U.S.A. reports. Issue is that stakeholders had anticipated much larger volumes to gear the local market up for Diwali, which is celebrated in November. Reason for the decline were limited inventories in the transition period. Expectation is that shipments will bounce back as the government plans to reduce the tax burden for almonds and processors will require supplies for the festive season.
By contrast, exports to Spain rose by 36% as adverse weather conditions have impacted production here. Total shipments to Western Europe have also risen by 10% with shipments to the Netherlands and Italy recording single digit increases, whereas shipments to Germany are 9% down. Importers are still engaging had-to-mouth purchases, but inventories are running low with US suppliers confident that demand will pick up here.
Exports to the United Arab Emirates have surged by 154% with shipments to the Middle East as a region witnessing a 68% hike on last year. Turkey showed a much smaller rise of 2%. Main driver is Ramadan, which will be celebrated early in February 2026. This has also lifted exports to Morocco by a stunning 86%.
Shipments to Japan fell by 18%, which is in line with the general direction in Northeast Asia, where shipments range 16% lower than last year.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
India |
27,947 |
16,389 |
-41.4% |
|
Spain |
10,050 |
13,697 |
36.3% |
|
UAE |
4,561 |
11,572 |
153.7% |
|
Netherlands |
7,315 |
7,597 |
3.9% |
|
Italy |
5,871 |
6,143 |
4.6% |
|
Germany |
6,278 |
5,715 |
-8.8% |
|
Canada |
5,464 |
4,840 |
-11.4% |
|
Morocco |
2,454 |
4,552 |
85.5% |
|
Japan |
4,197 |
3,462 |
-17.5% |
|
Turkey |
3,214 |
3,290 |
2.4% |
|
Others |
28,882 |
32,097 |
11.1% |
|
Total Exports |
106,233 |
109,354 |
2.9% |
|
Total Domestic |
62,050 |
48,450 |
-21.9% |
|
Grand Total |
168,283 |
157,804 |
-6.2% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/08 |
|||
Strained inventories
As the Almond Board of California highlights the loss and exempt rate was unusually high in 2024/2025. While 2% were forecasted and average lost and exempt figures range at 2.12%, the actual loss and exempt rate stands at 3.14%. Consequently, the current carryin is estimated at 483.806 million pounds, which is 3.75% down on last year’s 502.650 million pounds. In addition, only 447.037 million pounds of this amount are edible almonds.
Another issue is that crop receipts were 10.71% down in August 2025 at 259 million pounds as opposed to the 290 million pounds noted in August 2024. This is because August brought below-average temperatures as well as rain and thunderstorms, which delayed harvest activities in some areas. This weather pattern also persisted in early September.
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