Almonds: NASS forecast called into question
May 17, 2021 at 11:01 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Subjective forecast comes as a surprise
Sharp rises in bearing acreage and high yields have driven up production in California in recent years. Although bearing acreage is expected to rise again this year, opinions differs as to yields. Market professionals are convinced that the the trees need time to recover this year from two consecutive record production years and that this year's production will at the very most range at around 3 billion pounds. Water supplies, which are a problem in California, will also determine yields.
NASS has now, however, exceeded the most optimistic estimates in forecasting that 2021 will set a new record. Production is forecast to range 3% higher than last year at 3.20 billion pounds. Although NASS concedes that yields in 2021 will range 3% lower than last year's 2,490 pounds per acre, namely at 2,410 pounds, bearing acreage is expected to hit a record of 1,330,000, which is 6.4% up on last year's 1,250,000 acres. NASS is also concerned over low water levels, but emphasises that growing conditions were excellent in April and that the growers are optimistic over the development of the crop, despite variations across regions. A clearer picture will emerge over the next few weeks and an objective forecast will follow on 12 July.
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US almond production |
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|
Year |
Production (million pounds) |
Bearing acres |
Yield (pounds/acre) |
|
2021* |
3,200 |
1,330,000 |
2,410 |
|
2020 |
3,115 |
1,250,000 |
2,490 |
|
2019 |
2,560 |
1,180,000 |
2,170 |
|
2018 |
2,280 |
1,090,000 |
2,090 |
|
2017 |
2,270 |
1,030,000 |
2,200 |
|
National Agricultural Statistics Service / *subjective forecast (May 2021) |
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Firm prices in Europe
Spot market prices are holding firm in Europe, although supplies can easily meet demand. Natural Valencia almonds, size 12/14, are trading in a range of EUR 3.60-3.85/kg FCA Spain and blanched Valenica almonds the same size at EUR 4.60-4.70/kg FCA Spain. This may, however, change if a record production emerges in the US.
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Almonds |
|
|
Type |
EUR/kg |
|
Valencia, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
3.60-3.85 |
|
Valencia, 12/14 mm, blanched, Spain |
4.60-4.70 |
|
Largueta, 13/14 mm, natural, Spain |
5.70 |
|
Marcona, 12/14 mm, natural, Spain |
7.40 |
|
California, SSR, 23/25, natural |
4.20 |
|
California, SSR, 23/25, blanched |
4.85 |
|
FCA Spain |
|
Nominal rise in shipments to EU
While traders in Europe reported that the restrictions in place to curb the spread of pandemic had an adverse impact on demand last year, shipments to the EU in fact saw a nominal rise by 4% to 289,232 mt in 2020. While Spain was hard hit by the restrictions imposed as almonds are a popular snack served to tourists in bars and cafes and Chirstmas markets, at which large volumes of almonds are normally consumed, could not take place across Europe, it was also reported that retail demand experienced a boost. Almonds and other edible nuts have gained in popularity as healthy snacks. This shift in demand evidently compensated for any shortfalls in the catering and tourism sector.
While suppliers in the US, Australia and the UK clearly profitted fromt his trend, suppliers in other producing countries such as Chile and Afghanistan lost out. The US remains the most important supplier by far as shipments rose by just over 4% to 259,939 mt. Shipments from Australia are nearly 7% up at 14,320 mt and shipments from the UK have most notably risen sharply by 24%.
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Top 5 EU almond suppliers |
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|
Country |
2019 |
2020 |
Diff. |
|
USA |
248,821 |
259,838 |
4.4% |
|
Australia |
13,403 |
14,320 |
6.8% |
|
UK |
10,363 |
12,901 |
24.5% |
|
Chile |
841 |
378 |
-55.1% |
|
Afghanistan |
1,513 |
245 |
-83.8% |
|
Others |
2,857 |
1,550 |
-45.7% |
|
Total |
277,798 |
289,232 |
4.1% |
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European Commission *08021290 Fresh or dried almonds, shelled (excl. bitter) |
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View more
- price chart, almonds. natural, +14, Valencia
- price chart, almonds, natural 13/14, Largueta
- price chart, almonds, blanched, 27/30, California SSR- more price charts
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