Almonds: slowdown in US shipments
June 16, 2025 at 12:14 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Weak May shipments
While monthly exports hit an absolute record of 187.81 million pounds in April, May exports were flat on last year at 160.73 million pounds. Monthly domestic shipments even slumped by 22% to 51.03 million pounds as compared with May 2024. At 211 million pounds monthly May shipments ranged 6% lower than last year. Total domestic shipments stand 7% lower than last year at 569.86 billion pounds. Total exports are relatively flat on last year at 1.69 billion pounds. This prompts the grand total to range 2% lower than last year at 2.26 billion pounds.
Shifting export dynamics
Shipments to top destination India are still 3% off on last year, but have made a remarkable recovery since December, when they still ranged 21% lower than last year. Expectation is that demand will remain strong in the transition period. While exports to Spain have declined by 11%, shipments to Western Europe as a region are stable on last year with differing trends in individual countries. While shipments to the Netherlands and Italy are up, exports to Germany have, for instance, declined.
Exports to the United Arab Emirate have risen by 4% with shipments only ranging 4 million pounds behind Spain. Exports to the Middle East as a region have grown by 12% with Turkey showing a 15% uptick. Japan and South Korea are sporting more moderate single-digit growth rates. Shipments to Northeast Asia as a region have, however, declined sharply this year with China no longer listed amongst the top ten export destinations. Buyers here have turned to Australia.
|
US almond shipments in 1,000 lbs |
|||
|
Destination |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
India |
353,601 |
342,436 |
-3.2% |
|
Spain |
160,674 |
142,517 |
-11.3% |
|
UAE |
133,035 |
138,373 |
4.0% |
|
Netherlands |
93,871 |
114,301 |
21.8% |
|
Turkey |
83,560 |
95,941 |
14.8% |
|
Italy |
73,810 |
83,473 |
13.1% |
|
Germany |
93,729 |
80,146 |
-14.5% |
|
Japan |
73,113 |
77,414 |
5.9% |
|
Morocco |
64,352 |
55,057 |
-14.4% |
|
South Korea |
52,579 |
53,592 |
1.9% |
|
Others |
511,116 |
509,455 |
-0.3% |
|
Total Exports |
1,693,440 |
1,692,705 |
-0.0% |
|
Total Domestic |
612,942 |
569,863 |
-7.0% |
|
Grand Total |
2,306,382 |
2,262,568 |
-1.9% |
|
California almonds, 01/08-31/05 |
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Tight supplies
With only 900 million pounds remaining, supplies are tight. The carry forward will only range at 500 million pounds if shipments will continue to range below 200 million pounds in June and July. According to Olam the final crop receipts will stand blow 2.72 billion pounds.
While the subjective forecast projected a similar crop size as last year, field reports show that orchards confronted with restricted water supplies last year will bear less fruit. Although enough water is available this year, the high cost of electricity, which is required to pump water out of the ground, has prompted growers to stretch irrigation. According to forecasts California will experience above-average temperatures this summer. New crop sales are a stunning 62% down on last year at 65.70 million pounds showing that buyers and seller are in no hurry with a highly uncertain economic environment prevailing. All eyes are set on the objective estimate, which will by issued on 10 July.
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