Barley: A remedy for rivalry in the region?
April 12, 2018 at 3:11 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. Competitive pressure settled early in the marketing season, indeed the blow came during harvest, as prices started as low as 0.123 EUR/kg EXW a farmer’s storage facility in some regions. Yearly, the country is a relatively small producer of barley within the region, as during harvest 2017-18, national output amounted to just 633,393 mt.
Barley: controlling supply, will farmers get what they want?
For the upcoming season, the market expects a lower availability of planted acreages because farmers planted less, but lower availability does not necessarily mean higher prices. Since barley is the first among locally grown grains to be harvested, farmers are compelled to sell so that they could free-up space for the next in line to be harvested grains and, for some, repay bank loans. It is not the lack of demand, again, as domestic and foreign markets have long consumed all barley from the recent harvest. For instance, by the 6th of March 2018, exports to EU markets reached 259,432 mt, which on a year-to-year basis stand by 11.67% higher. It is the power, bigger regional exporters exert on the market within the Black sea basin that matters even locally.
|
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 - 06.04.2018) units in MT |
|
|
Beginning availability |
22,000 |
|
Aggregate output |
633,393 |
|
Imports |
5,314 |
|
Domestic consumption |
270,000 |
|
beer production |
60,000 |
|
feed |
180,000 |
|
seeds |
30,000 |
|
Exports to the world |
311,802 |
|
to EU markets |
259,432 |
|
to rest of the world |
52,370 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
A small swing could make a big difference
However, although the market expects a cut in planted fields with barley for the upcoming season, up to now, the figure is still nominal and not actual since it fluctuates within a few percentage points on a weekly basis, depending on estimates by local authorities. Yet, there are voices among farmers – those whose fields have been overflooded by disfavoring weather conditions – who foretell that the reduction in expected acreages could be larger. One thing is certain, the weather in the end of March/beginning of April 2018 made it impossible for farmers to enter fields and start sowing Spring barley on time. According to local authorities, in the beginning of April, sowed fields with Spring barley stood at 325 ha while a year earlier, the figure came to 2,352 ha. Anyhow, the recent weather has turned in favor of farmers, who hope to catch-up!
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