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Barley: Sluggish trade activities persist

November 30, 2017 at 3:00 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. Exports lag behind on an annual basis. The planned response to such foreign market developments is reduction in acreages.

BULGARIA. As if trying to find the right balance between foreign demand, which has been declining on a yearly basis, and sufficient quantities of local output, farmers cut their cultivation acreages for barley. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the 23rd of November 2017, estimates of sowed acreages came to 105,523 ha, which is by 15.3% lower than planted acreages from last year. The trend clearly indicates that farmers reorient their cultivation strategies in the short-term.

Barley: a tiresome unloading of reserves

There is no doubt, market players experienced a tough regional competition during the last marketing season, hoping harvest 2017-18 would usher a fresh perspective. And it did, since quality characteristics of barley were higher and exports skyrocketed early in the year. However, current market sentiments speak otherwise. According to local authorities, by the 24th of November 2017, the country exported 241,549 mt of barley while by the 25th of November 2016, shipped quantities abroad reached 357,746 mt. The difference of 32.48% is in favor of realized exports during the previous marketing season.

      Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 24.11.2017)

           units in MT

Beginning availability

22,000

Aggregate output

633,393

Imports

247

Domestic consumption

126,000

   beer production

31,500

   feed

94,500

Exports to the world

241,549

   to EU markets

224,332

   to rest of the world

    17,217

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

On the domestic front, things are not much different, either. By the end of last week, local consumption came to 126,000 mt while exactly one year earlier, domestic demand reached 148,400 mt.  The weaker export demand usually should fuel a stronger domestic consumption; and indeed, the strong export demand of feed wheat, which maintains firm prices, should have supported the alternative consumption of barley locally. Apparently, it is again competition within the Black sea region that taps on stronger barley export activity. There are no market signals for the prevailing trend to shift in opposite direction for the time being.

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