Barley: The warm Winter as a two edged-sword
January 12, 2018 at 12:58 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
Barley: a warm, treacherous Winter has settled … hopefully not for the long haul
BULGARIA. The unexpectedly warm Winter so far in the year is unequivocally seen by local farmers as a two edge-sword. Generally, crops look good all over the country, but the lack of substantial moisture reserves in the soil, if continued, would definitely result in lower yields. The sowed grains in the Autumn of 2017 need much more than the forecasted for this weekend intermittent rains throughout the majority of regions in the country. In higher altitude places, the rain will turn into wet snow, which should not be a cause of concern since recently, temperatures have been quite above the norm.
|
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 - 05.01.2018) units in MT |
|
|
Beginning availability |
22,000 |
|
Aggregate output |
633,393 |
|
Imports |
1,938 |
|
Domestic consumption |
162,000 |
|
beer production |
40,500 |
|
feed |
121,500 |
|
Exports to the world |
267,069 |
|
to EU markets |
239,332 |
|
to rest of the world |
27,737 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
Yet, starting next week, temperatures are expected to drop in some regions to as low as - 7 to - 9 Celsius degrees. However, as December 2017, so January 2018, as forecasted till the beginning of February 2018, seems to betray the hopes of local farmers for the so much hoped thick snow, which provides the so necessary moisture reserves. If February and March turned out to be as snowless, a reduction in output is inevitable!
Losing grounds on foreign markets outside the Union
Since the beginning of marketing season 2017-18, exports to non-EU markets have significantly plummeted. At the beginning of 2017, the country left behind shipped volumes of 141,485 mt to markets outside the EU, while by the beginning of 2018, exports amounted to just 27,737 mt. The country does not command the market power other regional market players such as Ukraine and Russia do in non-EU countries, and as a consequence, the result is reflected in the aforementioned numbers. There are no short-term market signals that indicate a reversal of the trend, which most probably will continue till the end of the current marketing season.
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