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Bulgarian wheat: future prospects seem encouraging

May 18, 2017 at 10:24 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Favorable weather is the key to prosperous upcoming harvest. Will an expected higher yield compensate for the somewhat smaller acreages of cultivated arable land from last year? Higher exports deplete remaining stocks.

SOFIA. Currently and for the upcoming weeks, wheat will be going through its phases of ear formation and blossoming. The rainfalls of last month, increasing the moisture reserves in the soil in some regions, seem to predict very good prospects for the upcoming crop. If weather conditions remain favorable until the beginning of the upcoming harvest, output will be strong.

Wheat: harvest plots have survived the unexpected low temperatures of the winter

According to the Ministry of Agriculture, by the end of the second week of May 2017, to-be-harvested area stood at 1,096,401 ha, which is about 2.7% less than arable lands of harvest 2016-17. Fallen through plots amounted to only 132 ha, confirming that winterkill was minimal.

Farmers from the so called region Golden Dobrudja – a region in the Northeast of Bulgaria also known as the Granary of Bulgaria – even expect a higher yield this year. Traditionally, the region registers the highest output of milling wheat in the country.

Much higher exports lead to depletion of remaining stocks

By the second week of May 2017, exports stood at 3,921,142 mt, which represents close to 70% of harvest output 2016-17. The majority of exports (2,437,259 mt) have gone to countries of the European Union such as Spain, Italy, Romania, Greece, etc. Smaller quantities (1,483,883 mt) go to non-EU countries such as Vietnam, Morocco, etc. By the same date, remaining stocks amounted to 509,897 mt. If exports go by the same weekly rate, before the new harvest begins, remaining stocks could well reach 200,000 – 250,000 mt.

The table below presents a snapshot of harvest 2016-17, as well as, current domestic and foreign trade developments.

Harvest 2016-17

(beginning of harvest till 12.05.2017)

Carry over

420,000 mt

Domestic output

5,605,422 mt

Domestic consumption

1,631,100 mt

Exports to the world

3,921,142 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

Sales on green for feed wheat are currently closed at 0.138 EUR/kg EXW Bulgaria.

Wheat, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

milling wheat

0.151

feed wheat

0.144

EXW Bulgaria

 

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