Cashews: upbeat projections
December 9, 2025 at 11:26 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Conservative INC estimates for Tanzania
Crop projections released by the International Nut and Dried Fruit Council (INC) in November are more upbeat than the initial estimates presented in May. Raw cashew nut production is now estimated to range 2% higher than last season at 4.574 million mt in the Northern Hemisphere and 7% higher in the Southern Hemisphere at 901,000 mt. Total production will stand 3% higher at 5.533 million mt in 2025/2026 than last year’s 5.366 million mt.
As harvesting has been completed and volumes shipped in the Northern Hemisphere with Côte D’Ivoire maintaining the position as leading producing country and Vietnam as leading processor eyes are now mainly set on Tanzania and Mozambique, where the seasons opened late. Yet, recent figures issued by the Cashew Nut Board of Tanzania (CBT) are more upbeat than the INC estimate of 500,000 mt. CBT rather anticipates a crop of 700,000 mt in the current season, which is 17% up on the 595,000 mt harvested in 2024/2025.
Production has also risen in Cambodia and India. Demand has been firm in China, the EU and the Middle East. European buyers are, however, showing increased interest in African kernels. By contrast, high costs and tariffs have slowed US demand. Vietnam has, however, successfully balanced lower US demand with shipments to China.
|
Global raw cashew nut (RCN) production (mt) |
|||
|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26* |
Diff. |
|
Côte D’Ivoire |
1,200,000 |
1,250,000 |
4.2% |
|
Cambodia |
800,000 |
850,000 |
6.3% |
|
India |
615,000 |
725,000 |
17.9% |
|
Vietnam |
340,000 |
300,000 |
-11.8% |
|
Nigeria |
282,000 |
300,000 |
6.4% |
|
Benin |
250,000 |
250,000 |
0.0% |
|
Ghana |
275,000 |
225,000 |
-18.2% |
|
Guinea-Bissau |
240,000 |
200,000 |
4.2% |
|
Guinea Conakry |
145,000 |
150,000 |
3.4% |
|
Burkina Faso |
145,000 |
150,000 |
3.4% |
|
Togo |
105,000 |
70,000 |
-33.3% |
|
Senegal |
45,000 |
70,000 |
55.6% |
|
Gambia |
25,000 |
29,000 |
56.0% |
|
Mali |
2,000 |
5,000 |
150.0% |
|
Subtotal |
4,469,000 |
4,574,000 |
2.3% |
|
Tanzania |
425,000 |
500,000 |
17.4% |
|
Brazil |
160,400 |
146,000 |
-9.0% |
|
Mozambique |
140,000 |
140,000 |
0.0% |
|
Indonesia |
110,000 |
110,000 |
0.0% |
|
Kenya |
5,000 |
5,000 |
0.0% |
|
Subtotal |
840,400 |
901,000 |
7.2% |
|
Total |
5,366,000 |
5,533,400 |
3.1% |
|
INC Nov 2025 |
|||
Insatiable demand in India
As the INC reports demand turned sluggish in India in July with consumption expected to rebound with the festival season in autumn. A recent report in The Hindu highlights India’s insatiable demand for cashews with All India Cashew Association President Bola Rahul Kamath expecting the country to require a stunning 4 million mt of raw cashew nuts for processing by 2045 only to meet domestic demand.
At present the country processes around 2 million mt of cashews with local production does not even covering half of this amount. Cashew kernel prices have risen steadily since the March/April and have reached a multi-year high.
|
Cashews, India |
|
|
Type |
USD/mt |
|
LWP |
6,815 |
|
SWP |
6,150 |
|
W320 |
8,160 |
|
W450 |
7,445 |
|
FOB India |
|
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