Dried Fruit

Desiccated coconuts: heatwave exacerbates raw material shortage

May 15, 2024 at 12:20 PM , Der AUDITOR
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MANILA. The extremely high temperatures in the Asian countries of origin are likely to exacerbate the commodity shortage for the 2025 crop. A similar scenario was already observed last year.

Up to 52°C

The experts at JASCORP are drawing attention to a major problem that is currently affecting many Asian coconut-growing countries: the massive heatwave. Various governments have already issued warning levels as temperatures are reaching threatening levels. Thailand, for example, has long since exceeded the 42°C mark, and in some areas maximum temperatures of 52°C have even been measured. The situation is similar in other origins such as the Philippines, Vietnam, Sri Lanka and India. The 2023 heatwave already had an impact on the supply of raw materials, and the current high temperatures are likely to paint a similar picture for the 2025 crop. Various agricultural commodities are affected – including coconuts. This will further intensify existing supply delays; the situation in the Red Sea and the detours this necessitates will do the rest.

Prices are rising rapidly

According to JASCORP, this means that stocks in the target countries have now shrunk considerably and demand is correspondingly high, and as soon as goods are available, they are sold again. Buying interest is far outstripping supply, which is also causing prices to rise rapidly. Market experts forecast the situation to worsen in Q3 and Q4, as this is when demand is usually at its highest. Buyers should therefore plan for the longer term and be prepared for further shortages.

The experts at T.M. Duché also report high prices. According to them, desiccated coconuts are priced at USD 0.80-0.95/lb, while coconut oil is traded at between USD 1,356 and 1,444/mt. Commodity prices are also high, especially in Thailand, where they have risen from 95 to 120 baht per piece, an increase of 25%. T.M. Duché also reports that the Philippines was able to massively increase its export volume of coconut oil: while 59,347 mt worth USD 58,864 were shipped in April 2023, in April 2024 it was an impressive 124,008 mt worth USD 148,847.

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