Desiccated coconuts: super El Niño with dire consequences
April 20, 2026 at 10:06 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
El Niño to impact production
El Niño is back with large parts of Asia affected by rising temperatures and a lack of rainfall. In the latest report, JCP International points to a possible Super El Niño event in 2026, which could trigger a structural supply shock in Southeast Asia’s agricultural sector. The region is central to global coconut and palm oil production, meaning that climatic changes have a direct impact on global supply. Heat and drought reduce soil moisture and significantly increase stress on crops. Coconut palm trees are sensitive to water shortages during fruit set, which leads to lower yields, smaller coconuts and a lower oil content. The reduced supply of ripe coconuts will limit production capacities and intensify competition among processors. At the same time, costs are rising due to less efficient processing methods and export availability is declining.
Dire consequences
This supply shortage is coinciding with stable demand – or, in the case of palm oil, higher demand due to the growing need for biofuel. Even if buying interest wanes once prices have risen, quotations will continue to rise. In a Super El Niño scenario, a deficit of 10–14 million mt of palm oil may emerge.
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Desiccated coconuts |
|
|
Quality |
EUR/mt |
|
High fat, fine, Indonesia |
2,950 |
|
High fat, medium, Indonesia |
3,000 |
|
High fat, fine, Philippines |
3,100 |
|
FCA EMP |
|
View more
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