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Desiccated coconuts: super El Niño with dire consequences

April 20, 2026 at 10:06 AM , Der AUDITOR
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MANILA. A potential Super El Niño event is exacerbating drought and heat in Southeast Asia and affecting coconut and palm oil production.

El Niño to impact production

El Niño is back with large parts of Asia affected by rising temperatures and a lack of rainfall. In the latest report, JCP International points to a possible Super El Niño event in 2026, which could trigger a structural supply shock in Southeast Asia’s agricultural sector. The region is central to global coconut and palm oil production, meaning that climatic changes have a direct impact on global supply. Heat and drought reduce soil moisture and significantly increase stress on crops. Coconut palm trees are sensitive to water shortages during fruit set, which leads to lower yields, smaller coconuts and a lower oil content. The reduced supply of ripe coconuts will limit production capacities and intensify competition among processors. At the same time, costs are rising due to less efficient processing methods and export availability is declining. 

Dire consequences

This supply shortage is coinciding with stable demand – or, in the case of palm oil, higher demand due to the growing need for biofuel. Even if buying interest wanes once prices have risen, quotations will continue to rise. In a Super El Niño scenario, a deficit of 10–14 million mt of palm oil may emerge. 

Desiccated coconuts

Quality

EUR/mt

High fat, fine, Indonesia

2,950

High fat, medium, Indonesia

3,000

High fat, fine, Philippines

3,100

FCA EMP

 

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price chart, desiccated coconuts, Sri Lanka
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Indonesia
price chart, desiccated coconuts, Philippines 
price chart, coconut oil, Indonesia
more price charts

 

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