Mustard seeds: Canada's crop forecast reduced again
August 24, 2023 at 11:19 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Yield forecast revised downwards
With a 15% increase in cultivation compared to last year, the chances of a significant increase in production in Canada's mustard seed market were not bad. But this year, too, heat and drought are throwing a spanner in the works for growers. According to the experts at Rayglen Commodities, the first farmers have already started harvesting and, as was to be expected, low yields are coming from southwestern Saskatchewan, with moderate yields coming from the US state of Montana.
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada now reckons that the average yield of the new crop will be 0.68 mt/ha - at 250,000 ha, production would thus come to 170,000 mt, which would still correspond to a slight increase of just under 5% compared to last year. Total availability would then be 212,000 mt and prices would probably not fall as much as expected, but would still be well below last year's level.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
117,000 |
225,000 |
92.3% |
225,000 |
258,000 |
14.7% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
110,000 |
219,000 |
99.1% |
219,000 |
250,000 |
14.2% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0,55 |
0,74 |
34.5% |
0,74 |
0,68 |
-8.1% |
|
Production (mt) |
61,000 |
162,000 |
165.6% |
162,000 |
170,000 |
4.9% |
|
Imports (mt) |
9,000 |
11,000 |
22.2% |
11,000 |
7,000 |
-36.4% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
130,000 |
179,000 |
37.7% |
179,000 |
212,000 |
18.4% |
|
Exports (mt) |
106,000 |
120,000 |
13.2% |
120,000 |
125,000 |
4.2% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
18,000 |
24,000 |
33.3% |
24,000 |
22,000 |
-8.3% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
6,000 |
35,000 |
483.3% |
35,000 |
65,000 |
85.7% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
2,885 |
2,140 |
-25.8% |
2,140 |
1,650 |
-22.9% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Stable prices in Ukraine
In the European spot market Sinapis Alba, 99.5% from Ukraine are traded at prices of EUR 0.93/kg FCA Czech Republic. For Brassica Nigra, 99.5% the offers are currently at a level of EUR 1.14/kg FCA Czech Republic.
|
Mustard seeds, Ukraine |
|
|
Quality, 2023 crop |
EUR/kg |
|
Sinapis Alba, 99.5% |
0.93 |
|
Brassica Nigra, 99.5% |
1.14 |
|
FCA Czech Republic |
|
Germany’s monthly imports up by more than 50%
Germany's mustard seed imports increased by more than 50% in June 2023 compared to the same month last year - from 3,070 mt (June 2022) to 4,755 mt (June 2023). Shipments from Canada have increased by about 3.5 times compared to June 2022 to 2,913 mt, but imports from Russia have also far more than doubled to 1,402 mt. This means that the two countries already account for the majority of shipments this month.
In total, Germany imported around 43,470 mt of mustard seeds between September 2022 and June 2023, compared to 37,330 mt in the same period of the previous year. Shipments from Russia (-10% to 18,313 mt), Ukraine (-43% to 3,825 mt), Estonia (-41% to 746 mt) and Kazakhstan (-41% to 499 mt) declined year-on-year, but the huge increase in imports from other countries caused total imports to rise. For example, imports from Canada tripled to 14,192 mt. Shipments from the Czech Republic (+177% to 3,329 mt) and Poland (+233% to 1,766 mt) also increased noticeably.
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
20,380 |
18,313 |
-10.1% |
|
Canada |
4,714 |
14,192 |
201.1% |
|
Ukraine |
6,711 |
3,825 |
-43.0% |
|
Czech Republic |
1,203 |
3,329 |
176.7% |
|
Poland |
531 |
1,766 |
232.6% |
|
Estonia |
854 |
746 |
-12.6% |
|
Kazakhstan |
840 |
499 |
-40.6% |
|
Others |
2,097 |
800 |
-61.9% |
|
Total |
37,330 |
43,470 |
16.4% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jun *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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