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Mustard seeds: Canada's crop forecast reduced again

August 24, 2023 at 11:19 AM , Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. The initially very good forecast for this year's mustard seed crop in Canada is now being revised bit by bit and the latest report from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada reduces the crop estimate yet again.

Yield forecast revised downwards

With a 15% increase in cultivation compared to last year, the chances of a significant increase in production in Canada's mustard seed market were not bad. But this year, too, heat and drought are throwing a spanner in the works for growers. According to the experts at Rayglen Commodities, the first farmers have already started harvesting and, as was to be expected, low yields are coming from southwestern Saskatchewan, with moderate yields coming from the US state of Montana.

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada now reckons that the average yield of the new crop will be 0.68 mt/ha - at 250,000 ha, production would thus come to 170,000 mt, which would still correspond to a slight increase of just under 5% compared to last year. Total availability would then be 212,000 mt and prices would probably not fall as much as expected, but would still be well below last year's level.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

117,000

225,000

92.3%

225,000

258,000

14.7%

Area harvested (ha)

110,000

219,000

99.1%

219,000

250,000

14.2%

Yield (mt/ha)

0,55

0,74

34.5%

0,74

0,68

-8.1%

Production (mt)

61,000

162,000

165.6%

162,000

170,000

4.9%

Imports (mt)

9,000

11,000

22.2%

11,000

7,000

-36.4%

Total supplies (mt)

130,000

179,000

37.7%

179,000

212,000

18.4%

Exports (mt)

106,000

120,000

13.2%

120,000

125,000

4.2%

Domestic consumption (mt)

18,000

24,000

33.3%

24,000

22,000

-8.3%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

6,000

35,000

483.3%

35,000

65,000

85.7%

Avg price in CAD/mt

2,885

2,140

-25.8%

2,140

1,650

-22.9%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Stable prices in Ukraine

In the European spot market Sinapis Alba, 99.5% from Ukraine are traded at prices of EUR 0.93/kg FCA Czech Republic. For Brassica Nigra, 99.5% the offers are currently at a level of EUR 1.14/kg FCA Czech Republic.

Mustard seeds, Ukraine

Quality, 2023 crop

EUR/kg

Sinapis Alba, 99.5%

0.93

Brassica Nigra, 99.5%

1.14

FCA Czech Republic

Germany’s monthly imports up by more than 50%

Germany's mustard seed imports increased by more than 50% in June 2023 compared to the same month last year - from 3,070 mt (June 2022) to 4,755 mt (June 2023). Shipments from Canada have increased by about 3.5 times compared to June 2022 to 2,913 mt, but imports from Russia have also far more than doubled to 1,402 mt. This means that the two countries already account for the majority of shipments this month.

In total, Germany imported around 43,470 mt of mustard seeds between September 2022 and June 2023, compared to 37,330 mt in the same period of the previous year. Shipments from Russia (-10% to 18,313 mt), Ukraine (-43% to 3,825 mt), Estonia (-41% to 746 mt) and Kazakhstan (-41% to 499 mt) declined year-on-year, but the huge increase in imports from other countries caused total imports to rise. For example, imports from Canada tripled to 14,192 mt. Shipments from the Czech Republic (+177% to 3,329 mt) and Poland (+233% to 1,766 mt) also increased noticeably. 

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Russia

20,380

18,313

-10.1%

Canada

4,714

14,192

201.1%

Ukraine

6,711

3,825

-43.0%

Czech Republic

1,203

3,329

176.7%

Poland

531

1,766

232.6%

Estonia

854

746

-12.6%

Kazakhstan

840

499

-40.6%

Others

2,097

800

-61.9%

Total

37,330

43,470

16.4%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jun

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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