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Peanuts: hardly any long-term contracts

August 25, 2025 at 12:41 PM , Der AUDITOR
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NEW DELHI/BUENOS AIRES. Bumper crops are expected in Argentina and Brazil this year, which is putting pressure on prices. Buyers are preferring to stock up on short-term contracts. In India, growers are pleased about the rainfall.

Buyers are covered for the time being

According to experts at Aldebaran, the days of long-term contracts on the peanut market seem to be a thing of the past. Hardly anyone is signing contracts for a year or more, and even six-month contracts seem difficult to secure. Experts say that buyers are only covering their needs gradually as they hope for further price declines. In April and May, prices in Argentina, the most important supplier for European buyers, fell significantly, and most buyers appear to have already secured supplies well into the new year. However, there are some differences in prices depending on the supplier, as smaller exporters are more willing to experiment with them because they are more dependent on cash, while large exporters tend to stick to their prices.

Possible record crops in Argentina and Brazil

As reported by HT NUTS, among others, Argentine farmers are expecting an extremely large crop. The acreage is expected to total 521,230 hectares, with an estimated yield of 3.5 mt/ha. This could pose considerable difficulties for market players in terms of processing and shipping – there were already some problems last year, and the crop was significantly lower at that time. While record production – and, as a result, probably record exports – are expected, HT NUTS anticipates a decline in the popular 38/42 size. Instead, more 40/50 peanuts will be produced, which is likely to meet with resistance from buyers. Margins will be rather low due to the large volume this year, putting pressure on producers and exporters. Market experts therefore expect the acreage for the coming year to be reduced again. In the longer term, the market will stabilise again, but this year the advantage is definitely with the buyers, while the suppliers have a tough nut to crack.

The situation is similar in Brazil, where the acreage is also 25% larger than in 2024. According to HT NUTS, the oversupply is also putting massive pressure on prices here, as demand cannot keep pace with these high volumes; the consequences are likely to be similar to those in Argentina, namely a smaller acreage in the next season. On the positive side, it should be noted that favourable prices have led to record peanut oil exports from Brazil. However, supplies to European buyers remain limited, as the strict rules on aflatoxin levels often cannot be met. The experts at Aldebaran also report that there are delivery delays from South American countries, which is due in part to unfavourable weather conditions, but also to the low quantities of suitable EU-compliant batches. In the last week of harvesting, farmers found that the quality was often not sufficiently high for EU buyers, which is why exporters have increasingly focused on other export markets.

US suppliers are largely satisfied, and prices for the remaining stocks from the 2025 crop have adjusted to the harvest expectations for 2026. Here, too, demand from the EU is rather low, which is likely due to fierce competition on the world market. According to HT NUTS, sowing for the 2026 crop has been completed and conditions have been favourable so far. The largest buyers of US peanuts continue to be neighbouring Canada and Mexico, but they too are taking advantage of the huge crops in the southern hemisphere.

Peanut crops in India are developing well

China has imported large quantities of peanuts again this year, but the domestic crop is now approaching, which will dampen imports. Overall, however, imports fell year-on-year in the January-June 2025 period, mainly due to high US tariffs and delivery delays in Sudan. Market analysts expect a stable crop in China, which should not differ significantly from last year's. More clarity will emerge in December when the new crop reaches export markets. It remains to be seen how the 2025/26 Chinese export season will develop, but market players are cautiously optimistic despite fierce competition.

The Indian peanut crop is facing mixed conditions this season. Early monsoon rains interrupted the harvest in Gujarat, according to HT NUTS, and are expected to reduce the crop volume to 20,000-30,000 mt. At the same time, however, this allowed the Kharif crop to be sown earlier. The minimum support price ensures that growers sell most of their produce to NAFED. After a brief dry spell, rains returned during the Janmashtami festival, which is very welcome news for peanut farmers, especially as it means that artificial irrigation is no longer necessary. Only isolated cases of crop damage due to heavy rainfall have been reported. There do not appear to be any pest problems so far, and the plants are developing well; they are currently in the budding and early flowering stage. Prices on the Indian market fell by only a moderate USD 10/mt compared to last week, as there was little trading activity due to the festivities.

Peanuts, with skin

Type

USD/mt

Bold, 40-50

1,170

Bold, 50-60

1,130

Bold, 60-70

1,115

Java, 50-60

1,225

Java, 60-70

1,140

Java, 70-80

1,145

FOB India, non-EU quality

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price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
price chart, peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
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