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Mustard seeds: Canada's crop hits 40-year low

October 5, 2021 11:31 AM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. Canadian authorities expect this year's crop to be the lowest since the 1970s. This is also reflected in the price forecasts for the 2021/2022 season.

Yields slumped by almost 40%

As with flaxseed, Statistics Canada (STC) has once again drastically reduced the cultivation figures for mustard seeds in the current seasonal forecast. The experts reckon that about 119,000 ha can be harvested this year. With an average yield of just 0.6 mt/ha (-39% yoy), farmers could therefore achieve the worst result since the 1970s with only 71,000 mt of mustard seeds in the 2021/2022 season. The average crop over the last 20 years was 157,200 mt, the acreage 179,200 ha and the yield 0.9 mt/ha. Thanks to cary-over stocks of 40,000 mt, 118,000 mt of mustard seeds should still be available on the market in the new season, which would nevertheless be a decline of almost 30% compared to last year. Accordingly, the expected average price has been increased by more than a quarter to CAD 1,200/mt compared to last year. However, it is questionable whether the export volume will be able to maintain the 75,000 mt under these circumstances.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2019/20 vs. 2020/21

2020/21 vs. 2021/22

Area sown (ha)

161,000

104,000

-35.4%

104,000

124,000

19.2%

Area harvested (ha)

155,000

101,000

-34.8%

101,000

119,000

17.8%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.87

0.98

12.6%

0.98

0.60

-38.8%

Production (mt)

135,000

99,000

-26.7%

99,000

71,000

-28.3%

Imports (mt)

7,000

6,000

-14.3%

6,000

7,000

16.7%

Total supplies (mt)

214,000

166,000

-22.4%

166,000

118,000

-28.9%

Exports (mt)

112,000

111,000

-0.9%

111,000

75,000

-32.4%

Domestic Consumption (mt)

42,000

15,000

-64.3%

15,000

38,000

153.3%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

61,000

40,000

-34.4%

40,000

5,000

-87.5%

Avg price in CAD/mt

700

885

26.4%

885

1,200

35.6%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Germany increases imports from Poland by 227%

Between September 2020 and July 2021, Germany imported 28,465 mt of mustard seeds, around 27% less than this time last year. Russia remains the most important supplier, even though imports from there have declined by almost 11%. Even more significant are the declines in shipments from Ukraine (-48%), Canada (-34%), Estonia (-33%) and Kazakhstan (-82%). In contrast, German mustard seed imports from the Czech Republic (+44%) and Poland (+227%) increased significantly.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Country

2019/20

2020/21

Diff.

Russia

17,423

15,600

-10.5%

Ukraine

13,406

6,989

-47.9%

Canada

4,368

2,888

-33.9%

Estonia

1,443

963

-33.3%

Czech Republic

521

752

44.3%

Poland

175

572

226.9%

Kazakhstan

1.207

220

-81.8%

Others

466

481

3.2%

Total

39,009

28,465

-27.0%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jul

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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