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Mustard seeds: Canada reduces cultivation forecast by 10%

June 16, 2021 11:44 AM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA/MOSCOW. Canada is by far one of the most important mustard seed suppliers for the EU. However, high prices and lower availability have led to declining imports into the EU. Now, contrary to previous expectations, the Canadian authorities have also significantly reduced the cultivation forecast for 2021.

Acreage smaller than expected

When StatCan published the first crop forecasts for the 2021/2022 mustard seed season at the beginning of the year, they were still reckoning a year-on-year increase in cultivation of more than 50% to 160,000 ha. In the current report by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, however, the acreage was reduced to 145,000 ha - which would still represent an increase of almost 40% compared to last year. Saskatchewan and Alberta each account for 75% and 24% of the sown area, respectively. Yield expectations have been raised from 0.94 mt/ha to 0.95 mt/ha, but are still behind last year's average of 0.98 mt/ha. Based on the current figures, experts expect a mustard seed production of 133,000 mt, which would roughly correspond to the 2019 crop and would even exceed last year's result by more than a third. However, due to the lower carry-over stocks from the current season, the average price of CAD 885/mt is even set CAD 25/mt higher than this season.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2019/20 vs 2020/21

2020/21 vs 2021/22

Area sown (ha)

161,000

104,000

-35.4%

104,000

145,000

39.4%

Area harvested (ha)

155,000

101,000

-34.8%

101,000

140,000

38.6%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.87

0.98

12.6%

0.98

0.95

-3.1%

Production (mt)

135,000

99,000

-26.7%

99,000

133,000

34.3%

Imports (mt)

7,000

7,000

0.0%

7,000

8,000

14.3%

Total supplies (mt)

214,000

166,000

-22.4%

166,000

166,000

0.0%

Exports (mt)

112,000

112,000

0.0%

112,000

112,000

0.0%

Domestic consumption (mt)

42,000

29,000

-31.0%

29,000

34,000

17.2%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

61,000

25,000

-59.0%

25,000

20,000

-20.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

700

860

22.9%

860

885

2.9%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Russia can compensate for EU import deficit

In 2020, the EU imported 117,778 mt of mustard seeds (12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)) from third countries. Thanks to a significant increase in shipments from Russia by 65% to 52,929 mt, deficits in imports from important growing countries such as Canada (-20% to 29,692 mt), Ukraine (-12.5% to 17,289 mt), Uruguay (-22% to 11,634%) and Kazakhstan (-69% to 3,097 mt) were largely offset.

Since the start of the 2020/2021 season, Germany has imported just under 20,000 mt of mustard seeds, a third less than in the same period last year. Shipments from Russia remained relatively stable at 11,888 mt, while imports from Ukraine and Canada each declined by 53% to 4,814 mt and 72% to 1,178 mt respectively, and Kazakhstan's exports to Germany even slumped by 90%. In contrast, imports from Estonia (+76% to 967 mt), the Czech Republic (+55% to 353 mt) and Poland (+52% to 249 mt) experienced a decent percentage increase.

Since the beginning of this calendar year, however, there have been noticeable shifts compared to last year. For example, shipments from Russia fell by 30% to 3,836 mt in the first three months of 2021, and the situation is similar for Canada (-75% to 1,416 mt) and Ukraine (-47% to 1,972 mt). Imports from Estonia, however, increased by 262% to 474 mt.

EU mustard seed* imports from third countries, in mt

Country

2019

2020

Diff.

Russia

32,064

52,929

65.1%

Canada

37,250

29,692

-20.3%

Ukraine

19,763

17,289

-12.5%

Uruguay

14,894

11,634

-21.9%

Kazakhstan

10,122

3,097

-69.4%

Moldova

1,922

2,210

15.0%

USA

2,385

208

-91.3%

Others

523

719

37.5%

Total

118,923

117,778

-1.0%

European Commission 

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

Price indications for Eastern Europe

In the European spot market, prices for yellow mustard seeds with a 99.5% purity from Russia are at a level of EUR 940/kg FOB Netherlands. Offers for Ukrainian goods are at EUR 980/kg for brown mustard seeds and EUR 870/kg FOB Netherlands for the "oriental" variety.

Mustard seeds

Quality, Origin

EUR/mt

Yellow, 99.5%, Russia

940

Bworn, 99.5%, Ukraine

980

Oriental, 99.5%, Ukraine

870

FOB Netherlands

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price charts

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