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Mustard seeds: concern about price pressure

April 6, 2023 at 10:13 AM , Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA/MOSCOW. Canadian market players are worried about a possible oversupply in the coming season and what this would mean for the price development. Meanwhile, Germany was able to make up for some of the missing volumes from Russia and Ukraine with imports from Canada.

17% more mustard seeds than last year

The experts from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada have published the current forecast for the Canadian mustard seed season 2023/2024. However, there are no major corrections, so the acreage is estimated at 230,000 ha as before, which corresponds to a slight increase of 2.2% compared to last year. Under average weather conditions, the experts forecast a yield of 0.86 mt/ha, which would still increase production by 17% year-on-year to 190,000 mt.

For the current 2022/2023 season, however, the average price level has been lowered by another 250 CAD/mt, but at CAD 2,365/mt, they are still at a comparatively high level. Therefore, the price forecast for the coming season is more than 20% lower. As the experts from Rayglen Commodities informed, some market players are worried about a possible oversupply in view of the growing acreage, because this would put pressure on prices in any case.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

117,000

225,000

92.3%

225,000

230,000

2.2%

Area harvested (ha)

110,000

219,000

99.1%

219,000

222,000

1.4%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.55

0.74

34.5%

0.74

0.86

16.2%

Production (mt)

61,000

162,000

165.6%

162,000

190,000

17.3%

Imports (mt)

9,000

9,000

0.0%

9,000

7,000

-22.2%

Total supplies (mt)

130,000

177,000

36.2%

177,000

237,000

33.9%

Exports (mt)

106,000

115,000

8.5%

115,000

120,000

4.3%

Domestic consumption (mt)

18,000

22,000

22.2%

22,000

22,000

0.0%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

6,000

40,000

566.7%

40,000

95,000

137.5%

Avg price in CAD/mt

2,885

2,365

-18.0%

2,365

1,870

-20.9%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Germany increases imports from Canada by 150%

Between September 2022 and January 2023, Germany imported a total of 21,555 mt of mustard seeds, up from 20,247 mt in the same period last year. After Germany's mustard seed imports got off to a weak start this season, imports have increased since November. Shipments from Russia (-18% to 10,025 mt), Ukraine (-10% to 2,973 mt) and Kazakhstan (-44% to 345 mt) continued to decline, but imports from countries such as Canada (+150% to 4,844 mt), the Czech Republic (+212% to 1,795 mt) and Poland (+179% to 730 mt) increased significantly.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Russia

12,192

10,025

-17.8%

Canada

1,943

4,844

149.3%

Ukraine

3,284

2,973

-9.5%

Czech Republic

575

1,795

212.2%

Poland

262

730

178.6%

Kazakhstan

612

345

-43.6%

Others

1.379

843

-38.9%

Total

20,247

21,555

6.5%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jan

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

Significant price differences

In the European spot market, prices for brown mustard seeds from Russia - Brassica Juncea, 98% purity - are at EUR 890/mt FCA Poland. Meanwhile, black mustard seeds, Brassica Nigra, 99.5% purity of Russian origin is currently trading at EUR 2,400/mt FCA Poland.

Mustard seeds, Russia

Quality

EUR/mt

Brassica Juncea, 98% purity

890

Brassica Nigra, 99.5% purity

2,400

FCA Poland

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