Mustard seeds: concern about price pressure
April 6, 2023 at 10:13 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
17% more mustard seeds than last year
The experts from Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada have published the current forecast for the Canadian mustard seed season 2023/2024. However, there are no major corrections, so the acreage is estimated at 230,000 ha as before, which corresponds to a slight increase of 2.2% compared to last year. Under average weather conditions, the experts forecast a yield of 0.86 mt/ha, which would still increase production by 17% year-on-year to 190,000 mt.
For the current 2022/2023 season, however, the average price level has been lowered by another 250 CAD/mt, but at CAD 2,365/mt, they are still at a comparatively high level. Therefore, the price forecast for the coming season is more than 20% lower. As the experts from Rayglen Commodities informed, some market players are worried about a possible oversupply in view of the growing acreage, because this would put pressure on prices in any case.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
117,000 |
225,000 |
92.3% |
225,000 |
230,000 |
2.2% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
110,000 |
219,000 |
99.1% |
219,000 |
222,000 |
1.4% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.55 |
0.74 |
34.5% |
0.74 |
0.86 |
16.2% |
|
Production (mt) |
61,000 |
162,000 |
165.6% |
162,000 |
190,000 |
17.3% |
|
Imports (mt) |
9,000 |
9,000 |
0.0% |
9,000 |
7,000 |
-22.2% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
130,000 |
177,000 |
36.2% |
177,000 |
237,000 |
33.9% |
|
Exports (mt) |
106,000 |
115,000 |
8.5% |
115,000 |
120,000 |
4.3% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
18,000 |
22,000 |
22.2% |
22,000 |
22,000 |
0.0% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
6,000 |
40,000 |
566.7% |
40,000 |
95,000 |
137.5% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
2,885 |
2,365 |
-18.0% |
2,365 |
1,870 |
-20.9% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Germany increases imports from Canada by 150%
Between September 2022 and January 2023, Germany imported a total of 21,555 mt of mustard seeds, up from 20,247 mt in the same period last year. After Germany's mustard seed imports got off to a weak start this season, imports have increased since November. Shipments from Russia (-18% to 10,025 mt), Ukraine (-10% to 2,973 mt) and Kazakhstan (-44% to 345 mt) continued to decline, but imports from countries such as Canada (+150% to 4,844 mt), the Czech Republic (+212% to 1,795 mt) and Poland (+179% to 730 mt) increased significantly.
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
12,192 |
10,025 |
-17.8% |
|
Canada |
1,943 |
4,844 |
149.3% |
|
Ukraine |
3,284 |
2,973 |
-9.5% |
|
Czech Republic |
575 |
1,795 |
212.2% |
|
Poland |
262 |
730 |
178.6% |
|
Kazakhstan |
612 |
345 |
-43.6% |
|
Others |
1.379 |
843 |
-38.9% |
|
Total |
20,247 |
21,555 |
6.5% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Jan *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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Significant price differences
In the European spot market, prices for brown mustard seeds from Russia - Brassica Juncea, 98% purity - are at EUR 890/mt FCA Poland. Meanwhile, black mustard seeds, Brassica Nigra, 99.5% purity of Russian origin is currently trading at EUR 2,400/mt FCA Poland.
|
Mustard seeds, Russia |
|
|
Quality |
EUR/mt |
|
Brassica Juncea, 98% purity |
890 |
|
Brassica Nigra, 99.5% purity |
2,400 |
|
FCA Poland |
|
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