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Mustard seeds: corrected crop estimates in Canada

October 26, 2023 at 12:49 PM , Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA/KYIV. The estimate for this year's Canadian mustard seed production has been revised downwards once again, but the overall result remains above last year's figure. In addition, the country has become one of the most important suppliers for the German market.

Yield deficit of 8%

A minimal correction in acreage prompted Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to again reduce the 2023 mustard seed production forecast. Of the 258,000 ha sown, only 248,000 ha are expected to yield. As a result, the crop estimate was reduced to 168,000 mt. Compared to last year, however, significantly more fields were sown, so that mustard seed production is expected to exceed the previous year's result by almost 4% despite the lower yield. A total of about 215,000 mt of Canadian mustard seeds is expected to be available for the 2023/2024 season. Meanwhile, the price forecast for the current season has been raised noticeably; instead of an average price of CAD 1,650/mt, experts now expect prices of CAD 1,770/mt - although these offers are still well below the record prices of the past two years.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

2022/23

2023/24

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

117,000

225,000

92.3%

225,000

258,000

14.7%

Area harvested (ha)

110,000

219,000

99.1%

219,000

248,000

13.2%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.55

0.74

34.5%

0.74

0.68

-8.1%

Production (mt)

61,000

162,000

165.6%

162,000

168,000

3.7%

Imports (mt)

9,000

12,000

33.3%

12,000

7,000

-41.7%

Total supplies (mt)

130,000

190,000

46.2%

190,000

215,000

13.2%

Exports (mt)

92,000

124,000

34.8%

124,000

125,000

0.8%

Domestic consumption (mt)

22,000

26,000

18.2%

26,000

25,000

-3.8%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

16,000

40,000

150.0%

40,000

65,000

62.5%

Avg price in CAD/mt

2,885

2,140

-25.8%

2,140

1,770

-17.3%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Imports from Canada almost tripled

Germany imported a total of 47,572 mt of mustard seeds in the 2022/2023 season, which is more than 10% more than last year. There was a decline in shipments from countries such as Russia (-10% to 20,776 mt) and Ukraine (-49% to 3,933 mt), whereas there was a significant increase in imports from Canada (+178% to 15,342 mt), the Czech Republic (+130% to 3,425 mt) and Poland (+219% to 2,030 mt).

Prices for Ukrainian mustard seeds are currently relatively stable. Ukrainian mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 99.9% purity are offered on the European spot market for EUR 0.84/kg EXW Poland.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Russia

22,959

20,776

-9.5%

Canada

5,528

15,342

177.5%

Ukraine

7,752

3,933

-49.3%

Czech Republic

1,493

3,425

129.4%

Poland

637

2,030

218.7%

Estonia

854

746

-12.6%

Kazakhstan

1,060

499

-52.9%

India

903

119

-86.8%

Others

1,537

702

-54.3%

Total

42,723

47,572

11.3%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Aug

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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