Mustard seeds: corrected crop estimates in Canada
October 26, 2023 at 12:49 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Yield deficit of 8%
A minimal correction in acreage prompted Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada to again reduce the 2023 mustard seed production forecast. Of the 258,000 ha sown, only 248,000 ha are expected to yield. As a result, the crop estimate was reduced to 168,000 mt. Compared to last year, however, significantly more fields were sown, so that mustard seed production is expected to exceed the previous year's result by almost 4% despite the lower yield. A total of about 215,000 mt of Canadian mustard seeds is expected to be available for the 2023/2024 season. Meanwhile, the price forecast for the current season has been raised noticeably; instead of an average price of CAD 1,650/mt, experts now expect prices of CAD 1,770/mt - although these offers are still well below the record prices of the past two years.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
117,000 |
225,000 |
92.3% |
225,000 |
258,000 |
14.7% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
110,000 |
219,000 |
99.1% |
219,000 |
248,000 |
13.2% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.55 |
0.74 |
34.5% |
0.74 |
0.68 |
-8.1% |
|
Production (mt) |
61,000 |
162,000 |
165.6% |
162,000 |
168,000 |
3.7% |
|
Imports (mt) |
9,000 |
12,000 |
33.3% |
12,000 |
7,000 |
-41.7% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
130,000 |
190,000 |
46.2% |
190,000 |
215,000 |
13.2% |
|
Exports (mt) |
92,000 |
124,000 |
34.8% |
124,000 |
125,000 |
0.8% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
22,000 |
26,000 |
18.2% |
26,000 |
25,000 |
-3.8% |
|
Carry-over stocks (mt) |
16,000 |
40,000 |
150.0% |
40,000 |
65,000 |
62.5% |
|
Avg price in CAD/mt |
2,885 |
2,140 |
-25.8% |
2,140 |
1,770 |
-17.3% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Imports from Canada almost tripled
Germany imported a total of 47,572 mt of mustard seeds in the 2022/2023 season, which is more than 10% more than last year. There was a decline in shipments from countries such as Russia (-10% to 20,776 mt) and Ukraine (-49% to 3,933 mt), whereas there was a significant increase in imports from Canada (+178% to 15,342 mt), the Czech Republic (+130% to 3,425 mt) and Poland (+219% to 2,030 mt).
Prices for Ukrainian mustard seeds are currently relatively stable. Ukrainian mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 99.9% purity are offered on the European spot market for EUR 0.84/kg EXW Poland.
|
Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2021/22 |
2022/23 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
22,959 |
20,776 |
-9.5% |
|
Canada |
5,528 |
15,342 |
177.5% |
|
Ukraine |
7,752 |
3,933 |
-49.3% |
|
Czech Republic |
1,493 |
3,425 |
129.4% |
|
Poland |
637 |
2,030 |
218.7% |
|
Estonia |
854 |
746 |
-12.6% |
|
Kazakhstan |
1,060 |
499 |
-52.9% |
|
India |
903 |
119 |
-86.8% |
|
Others |
1,537 |
702 |
-54.3% |
|
Total |
42,723 |
47,572 |
11.3% |
|
Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Aug *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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