Mustard seeds: higher yields to compensate for cultivation deficit
April 4, 2024 at 4:48 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Acreage to be almost 20,000 ha smaller
The experts at Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada have adjusted their forecasts for the 2024/2025 Canadian mustard seed season. At 240,000 ha, the area under cultivation is expected to be almost 7% larger than initially assumed, but this is still almost 20,000 ha less than was sown in the previous year. Only the hope of higher yields causes the crop forecast of 180,000 mt to be around 5% higher than in 2023. 252,000 mt of mustard seeds are expected to be available on the Canadian market in 2024/2025 thanks to the carry-over stocks from the current season. The average price level is nevertheless expected to fall significantly; at CAD 930/mt, Canadian mustard seeds are expected to be almost 30% cheaper than last year. Currently, prices in the Canadian mustard seed market have been largely stable for several weeks.
Meanwhile, mustard seed traders on the European spot market are watching the EU Commission's decision with concern. The imposition of import duties on agricultural products such as oilseeds from Russia and Belarus is not likely to leave the mustard seed market unaffected. Accordingly, traders are currently cautious with their offers. A decision on the proposal regarding the new measures is to be made in mid-April.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
2023/24 |
2024/25 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
225,000 |
258,000 |
14.7% |
258,000 |
240,000 |
-7.0% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
219,000 |
251,000 |
14.6% |
251,000 |
232,000 |
-7.6% |
|
Yields (mt/ha) |
0.74 |
0.68 |
-8.1% |
0.68 |
0.78 |
14.7% |
|
Production (mt) |
162,000 |
171,000 |
5.6% |
171,000 |
180,000 |
5.3% |
|
Imports (mt) |
11,000 |
8,000 |
-27.3% |
8,000 |
7,000 |
-12.5% |
|
Total supplies (mt) |
189,000 |
218,000 |
15.3% |
218,000 |
252,000 |
15.6% |
|
Exports (mt) |
110,000 |
110,000 |
0.0% |
110,000 |
110,000 |
0.0% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
40,000 |
43,000 |
7.5% |
43,000 |
42,000 |
-2.3% |
|
Carry-over supplies (mt) |
40,000 |
65,000 |
62.5% |
65,000 |
100,000 |
53.8% |
|
Avg. CAD/mt |
2,140 |
1,310 |
-38.8% |
1,310 |
930 |
-29.0% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
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Russia remains most important supplier for the EU
Between July 2023 and March 2024, 43,145 mt of mustard seeds were imported into the EU, a decrease of around 30% compared to the same period last year. According to the European Commission's data, this is primarily due to the fact that almost 27,000 mt of mustard seeds were imported from Argentina last year, which was not the case this season. Meanwhile, Russia remains the most important supplier for the EU, with imports of 38,753 mt even slightly above last year's figure, but imports from Ukraine also increased by 40% to 11,382 mt. In contrast, shipments from countries such as Canada (-13% to 16,408 mt), Kazakhstan (-13% to 2,050 mt) and India (-80% to 301 mt) declined.
Germany imported a total of 19,860 mt of mustard seeds between September 2023 and January 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 8%. Russia remains by far the most important supplier; at 10,119 mt, imports were at a similar level to the same period of the previous year, while shipments from Ukraine almost doubled to 5,705 mt. However, exports from other important trading partners declined, including Canada (-41% to 2,854 mt), Poland (-37% to 477 mt) and the Czech Republic (-76% to 427 mt).
|
EU mustard seed* imports, in mt |
|||
|
Supplier |
2022/23 |
2023/24 |
Diff. |
|
Russia |
38,473 |
38,753 |
0.7% |
|
Canada |
18,913 |
16,408 |
-13.2% |
|
Ukraine |
8,111 |
11,382 |
40.3% |
|
Kazakhstan |
2,351 |
2,050 |
-12.8% |
|
India |
1,499 |
301 |
-79.9% |
|
Argentina |
26,889 |
0 |
-100.0% |
|
Uruguay |
1,462 |
0 |
-100.0% |
|
Others |
1,887 |
667 |
-64.7% |
|
Total |
99,585 |
69,561 |
-30.1% |
|
European Commission / Jul-Mar *12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
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