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Mustard seeds: positive cultivation forecast persists

June 30, 2022 11:58 AM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA/MOSCOW. StatsCan continues to maintain its forecast for the 2022/2023 mustard seed season. Thanks to larger acreages and hopefully significantly better yields than last year, the crop result should be able to almost triple year-on-year. In addition, analysts also expect an increase in cultivation in Russia.

Canada's crop to increase by 190%

As the experts at Rayglen Commodties report, Canadian mustard seeds are benefiting from favourable weather conditions in the growing regions and rainfall is providing moisture to the fields. Under ideal conditions, production could rise by 190% year-on-year to 145,000 mt, according to StatsCan. The Canadian market is relatively quiet, not least because of the holiday this week, while mustard seed prices are holding their high level for the time being. In addition, experts also expect an increase in cultivation in Russia.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

104,000

125,000

20.2%

125,000

185,000

48.0%

Area harvested (ha)

101,000

113,000

11.9%

113,000

179,000

58.4%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.98

0.44

-55.1%

0.44

0.81

84.1%

Production (mt)

99,000

50,000

-49.5%

50,000

145,000

190.0%

Imports (mt)

6,000

15,000

150.0%

15,000

7,000

-53.3%

Total supplies (mt)

165,000

105,000

-36.4%

105,000

157,000

49.5%

Exports (mt)

111,000

85,000

-23.4%

85,000

90,000

5.9%

Domestic consumption (mt)

15,000

15,000

0.0%

15,000

42,000

180.0%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

40,000

5,000

-87.5%

5,000

25,000

400.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

885

3,000

239.0%

3,000

2,050

-31.7%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Russia also to increase cultivation

In recent months, mustard seed prices have reached their absolute record level. Scott Cunningham, Managing Director of Schlüter & Maack Canada, therefore reckons that it is not only Canada that will grow more mustard seeds. The company estimates Russia's cultivation plus for the 2022/2023 season at 30%, but does not leave out possible supply problems due to sanctions. Cunningham considers more favourable prices to be possible in order to still make shipments diverted via Canada, for example, attractive. Other European countries such as Poland, the Czech Republic and Hungary, which have reduced their mustard seed production in recent years, could also re-enter the market as producers this year, according to Schlüter & Maack. Although notable quantities influencing world market prices are not to be expected, a part of the expected deficit of Ukrainian mustard seeds could be compensated. Eastern European mustard seeds, Sinapis Alba, 99.5% are currently traded by Polish traders at very differing prices of EUR 1.75-2.40/kg FCA Poland.

German imports from Ukraine decline

German mustard seed imports increased significantly by 50% year-on-year in the period September 2021 to April 2022. The most important supplier by far was Russia, which shipped 18,852 mt to Germany - a full 64% more than in the same period last year. The second and third most important suppliers were Ukraine with 4,569 mt (-9%) and Canada with 2,950 mt (+64%). In total, German imports in the above-mentioned period amounted to 30,504 mt.

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Russia

11,522

18,852

63.6%

Ukraine

5,005

4,569

-8.7%

Canada

1,798

2,950

64.1%

Czech Republic

376

1,045

177.9%

Estonia

873

854

-2.2%

Kazakhstan

220

766

248.2%

Poland

244

269

10.2%

Others

356

1,199

236.8%

Total

20,394

30,504

49.6%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Apr

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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