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Mustard seeds: significant production increase in sight

April 27, 2022 12:33 PM, Der AUDITOR
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OTTAWA. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada is optimistic about yield and crop volume in its latest estimates for the 2022/23 season. Germany's imports, meanwhile, are significantly higher than last year.

Hardly any carry-over stocks for the new season

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada announced in its latest report that Canadian exports for the 2021/22 season are expected to be lower than last year and should reach 80,000 mt. Due to the low production, stocks are shrinking rapidly and experts expect that there will be hardly any carry-over stocks at the start of the new season, which will also probably drive the average price to a record level. The most important export destinations for Canadian mustard seeds continue to be the USA and the EU.

Average price remains high

For the 2022/23 season, the market experts are reckoning a significantly larger acreage and production should also increase noticeably to up to 115,000 mt under normal circumstances. Exports here are estimated at 80,000 mt, the same quantity as last year. Due to the higher supply, the average price is likely to decline slightly again, although it will still be above the five-year average.

Mustard seeds, Canada

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

2021/22

2022/23

Diff.

Area sown (ha)

104,000

125,000

20.2%

125,000

150,000

20.0%

Area harvested (ha)

101,000

113,000

11.9%

113,000

145,000

28.3%

Yield (mt/ha)

0.98

0.44

-55.1%

0.44

0.79

79.5%

Production (mt)

99,000

50,000

-49.5%

50,000

115,000

130.0%

Imports (mt)

6,000

8,000

33.3%

8,000

7,000

-12.5%

Total supplies (mt)

165,000

98,000

-40.6%

98,000

127,000

29.6%

Exports (mt)

111,000

80,000

-27.9%

80,000

80,000

0.0%

Domestic consumption (mt)

15,000

13,000

-13.3%

13,000

32,000

146.2%

Carry-over stocks (mt)

40,000

5,000

-87.5%

5,000

15,000

200.0%

Avg price in CAD/mt

885

2,900

227.7%

2,900

1,800

-37.9%

Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Ukraine conflict influences the market

Price trends are generally difficult at the moment. As Rayglen Commodities reports, it still looked as if a downward trend was emerging at the beginning of March, but Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the war that has continued since then ensure that Russian shipments are made impossible. This has given prices a new boost. On the European spot market, mustard seeds of the Sinapis Alba variety, 99.9% purity for deliveries in big bags currently cost EUR 2.30/kg FCA Poland.

Massive increase in German imports

German mustard seed imports increased significantly by more than 44% year-on-year in the period September 2021 to February 2022. The most important supplier was Russia, which increased its exports to Germany by almost 55% to 13,602 mt, followed by Ukraine (+9.7% to 4,283 mt) and Canada (+74.5% to 2,613 mt). The most significant increases in their shipments to Germany were achieved by the Czech Republic (+208.8%) and Kazakhstan (+860.6%).

Mustard seed* imports, Germany, in mt

Supplier

2020/21

2021/22

Diff.

Russia

8,789

13,602

54.8%

Ukraine

3,906

4,283

9.7%

Canada

1,497

2,613

74.5%

Czech Republic

226

698

208.8%

Kazakhstan

66

634

860.6%

Estonia

611

11

-98.2%

Others

562

746

32.7%

Total

15,657

22,587

44.3%

Federal Statistical Office of Germany / Sep-Feb

*12075090 Mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing)

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