Mustard seeds: upbeat estimates
April 13, 2026 at 3:01 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Canola instead of mustard
Scepticism prevails about the estimates for next season. According to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada nearly 200,000 ha will be sown this year, as much as 36% more than last year. Yet, Rayglen Commodities expects that more Canadian canola may be grown this year at the expense of smaller products such as mustard seeds as prices are more attractive.
In addition, it should be noted that the 200,000 ha predicted this year falls short of the areas sown in recent years (2022 to 2024: 224,500–257,800 ha). Yellow mustard seed prices have remained largely stable on the Canadian market at CAD 0.37/lb, whereas brown mustard seeds are quoted at CAD 0.30–0.32/lb.
|
Mustard seeds, Canada |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
2025/26 |
2026/27 |
Diff. |
|
Area sown (ha) |
245,000 |
146,000 |
-40.4% |
146,000 |
198,000 |
35.6% |
|
Area harvested (ha) |
243,000 |
145,000 |
-40.3% |
145,000 |
193,000 |
33.1% |
|
Yield (mt/ha) |
0.79 |
0.97 |
22.8% |
0.97 |
0.79 |
-18.6% |
|
Production (mt) |
192,000 |
140,000 |
-27.1% |
140,000 |
152,000 |
8.6% |
|
Imports (mt) |
8,000 |
9,000 |
12.5% |
9,000 |
9,000 |
0.0% |
|
Total supply (mt) |
288,000 |
292,000 |
1.4% |
292,000 |
306,000 |
4.8% |
|
Exports (mt) |
91,000 |
95,000 |
4.4% |
95,000 |
95,000 |
0.0% |
|
Domestic consumption (mt) |
54,000 |
52,000 |
-3.7% |
52,000 |
51,000 |
-1.9% |
|
Carry over supply (mt) |
143,000 |
145,000 |
1.4% |
145,000 |
160,000 |
10.3% |
|
Avg CAD/mt |
860 |
890 |
3.5% |
890 |
900 |
1.1% |
|
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada |
||||||
EU largely depends on Canada
Mustard seed imports into the EU still range higher than last year. According to data from the European Commission, a total of 68,572 mt were imported between 1 July 2025 and 5 April 2026, which is 14% more than at this time last year. The import value stands at EUR 40.734 million (USD 48 million) (-8%) and the average import price has fallen by 20% to EUR 0.59/kg (USD 0.70/kg) as compared with the same period last year.
Imports from Canada have so far totalled 18,209 mt, which is 4% up on last year. Imports from Kazakhstan have more than doubled. Shipments from Russia are also 23% up. By contrast, shipments from Ukraine have dipped by 43%.
Poland currently is the largest buyer in the EU with imports surging by 51% to 22,380 mt as compared with last year. Shipments to Belgium have also doubled to 18,800 mt, whereas Germany is sporting a 34% decline to 13,380 mt.
|
EU mustard seed imports (mt) |
|||
|
Partner |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
Canada |
17,535 |
18,209 |
3.8% |
|
Kazakhstan |
8,012 |
16,977 |
111.9% |
|
Russia |
10,837 |
13,271 |
22.5% |
|
Ukraine |
21,359 |
12,143 |
-43.1% |
|
Brazil |
0 |
6,695 |
- |
|
Moldova |
1,706 |
992 |
-41.9% |
|
India |
234 |
146 |
-37.6% |
|
UK |
11 |
90 |
718.2% |
|
Turkey |
3 |
22 |
633.3% |
|
Belarus |
176 |
20 |
-88.6% |
|
Others |
44 |
7 |
-84.1% |
|
Total |
59,917 |
68,572 |
14.4% |
|
DG AGRI TAXUD Customs Surveillance System, 01/07-05/04 HS Code 12075090 mustard seeds, whether or not broken (excl. for sowing) |
|||
Concerns over hybrid
Farmers in Canada are concerned about the possible approval of a new genetically modified (GMO) mustard-canola hybrid, which is said to thrive even in hot, dry weather as Reuters reports. Issue is the potential for cross-contamination via pollen drift and bee pollination to neighbouring fields. The plants look very similar to mustard and belong to the same genus (Brassica juncea), which is why cross-pollination is theoretically possible.
Traders fear a repeat of the 2009 scandal when traces of genetically modified materials were detected in shipments to the EU, which cost Canada the then virtual monopoly in the EU – a blow from which the market has still not recovered. Russia and Kazakhstan were only too happy to fill the gap that arose at the time and have vastly expanded cultivation over the years.
According to Reuters international buyers have so far not commented on the issue. France, for instance, imports around half of the volumes from Canada. Most contracts include a clause stipulating that products must be GMO-free. A French law limits the proportion of GMOs in food, but the determination of permissible traces is largely at the discretion of the buyer. European spot market prices are firm.
|
Mustard seeds, 99.95% |
|
|
Type |
EUR/mt |
|
Yellow, Moldova, DDP Germany |
780-800 |
|
Yellow, Kazakhstan, DAP Germany |
760 |
|
Trade sources |
|
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