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Oilseeds daily: phase one deal dismissed as farce

June 29, 2020 at 8:51 AM, Der AUDITOR
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CHICAGO/HAMBURG. John Bolton's scathing memoir on President Donald Trump vividly illustrates how egocentric Trump's approach to China is. Politcal experts uniformly agree that the phase one deal with China is a farce designed to boost voting for Trump in his electoral campaign. Market players are, meanwhile, puzzled by the persistently high prices for sunflower oil.

Trump uses US soybean farmers as pawns
As John Bolton's memior on Donald Trump has been criticised and analysed over the weekend it has become apparant that Trump mainly initiated the phase one deal with China to attract the famers in the Midwest to vote for him in 2020. In the deal China agreed to purchase more agricultural products, including soybeans and corn, from the US and Trump to cut tariffs on Chinese imports. The deal has been contested ever since it was signed in January. Meanwhile, soy has seen a weak start to the week with drastic declines for soy oil. One reason is that the IGC has revised production estimates for soybeans up by more than 1 million metric tonnes to 364 million metric tonnes, which is an 8% rise over last year and a new record. Consumption is, however, also expected to rise to 363 million metric tonnes. The end-of-season stocks should climb by 3 million metric tonnes to 45 million metric tonnes. As shipments to China are expected to rise, world trade is set to reach a peak of 160 million metric tonnes, which is an increase of 1 million metric tonnes over last year. Soymeal was quoted firm in the Netherlands and in Germany on Monday morning.

Soymeal LP (44/7) EUR/t, physical market

FOB

7/20

9/20

9/20

10/20

Rotterdam, NL

291.00

290.00

291.00

291.00

Hamburg, DE

285.00

284.00

284.00

284.00

Mainz, DE

299.00

299.00

299.00

299.00

Straubing, DE

319.00

319.00

317.00

319.00

Trade sources

Persistently high prices for sunflower oil

The prices for sunfower seed oil have remained persistently high over the last few weeks. Sunflower seed oil is currently quoted firmly at USD 795 per metric tonne CIF Rotterdam. One reason is Russia's intention of raising export tariffs and the trade policies in the Ukraine, wich have given rise to uncertainty. Traders, however, uniformly agree that sunflwoer seed supplies suffice and advise buyers to wait and see. High oleic sowing has, in addition, risen to 170,000-200,00 hectares in Bulgaria, which comprises as much as a quarter of the total area sown.

Sunflower seeds (44/9/2)

Place

EUR/mt

Diff.

Bordeaux FOB

340.00

0.00

St. Nazaire FOB

340.00

0.00

Trade sources

EU rapesed production to range lower than average

The European Commission estimates rapeseed production at 15.41 million metric tonnes. ALthough rangin higher than the 15.36 million metric tonnes produced last year, the volume is, nevertheless, nearly 17% lower than the five-year moving average. France should prodcue 3.47 million metric tonnes and Germany 3.13 million metric tonnes. Prompted by an increase in acreage prodcution in Ukraine may rise to 3.8-4.0 million metric tonnes, which is higher than the 3.5 million metris tonnes produced last year. Rapeseed is quoted at USD 415-420 per metric tonne CPT Ukraine.

Rapeseed 00 (40/9/2)

Place

EUR/mt

Diff.

Rouen FOB

362.00

0.00

Mosel FOB

376.00

0.00

Hamburg CIF

376.00

0.00

Neuss DDP

383.00

-0.00

Hamm DDP

383.00

0.00

Mannheim DDP

383.00

0.00

Trade sources

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price chart, soybeans, CBOT
price chart, rapeseed, ENX
price chart, sunflower kernels, bakery, China
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