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Oilseeds daily: Rabobank raises estimates for Brazil's soybean crop

July 30, 2020 10:12 AM, Der AUDITOR
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CHICAGO/HAMBURG. Market and price trends with first estimates.

Soybeans: Brazil breaks record expectations
The US soybean market was rowing back, no new exports to China were reported. In the weekly export report, the US trade estimates exports of 0.3 to 0.5 million metric tonnes for the old crop and 1.5 to 2.0 million metric tonnes for the new crop. The focus was on the weather. From the West Atlantic, Hurricane "Isaias" is heading towards Florida's coast and could bring storms and flooding. By then, however, US brokers expected the average yield of US soybeans for the new crop to rise to 51 bushels/acre, as growth conditions would be good. The USDA forecast is at 49.8 bushels/acre. In Brazil, Arc Mercosul has raised its forecast for the 2020/2021 soybean crop to 129.15 million metric tonnes. Rabobank reckoned a crop of 127.3 million metric tonnes. In this respect, Brazil's new record crop in spring 2021 must be expected.

Soy futures (front month)

Soybeans (USD/bu)

890.25

-0.7 %

Soymeal (USD/bu)

286.60

-0.8 %

Soy oil (USD/bu)

29.83

1.3 %

 

Soymeal LP (44/7) EUR/t, physical market

FOB

7/20

8/20

9/20

10/20

Rotterdam

289.00

289.00

291.00

291.00

Hamburg

288.00

288.00

290.00

290.00

Mainz

296.00

296.00

298.00

298.00

Straubing

313.00

313.00

317.00

317.00

Trade sources

 

Rapeseed: High euro exchange rate favors imports
The Canadian canola market grew slightly. Rapeseed gave way in Paris. Increased palm oil prices supported the market, although palm oil exports from Malaysia fell by 2.2% to 1,385,186 metric tonnes in the period from 1 July to 25 July compared to last month, according to shipper SGS. In France, rapeseed could firm up by EUR 2.00 per metric tonne FOB Moselle. The oil mills are now basing their purchase prices for the new crop on the November date. The euro exchange rate, which has risen to just under 1.18 USD/EUR, promotes rapeseed imports from Ukraine and other origins.

Canola/rapeseed futures (front month)

Canola (CAD/mt)

489.80

0.5 %

Rapeseed (EUR/mt)

380.00

-1.2 %

 

Rapeseed 00 (40/9/2), spot market, new crop

Parity

EUR/mt

Diff. EUR/mt

Rouen FOB*

376.00

2.00

Moselle FOB*

380.00

-2.00

Hamburg CIF*

381.00

2.00

Neuss DDP*

385.00

0.00

Hamm DDP*

386.00

0.00

Mannheim DDP*

383.00

0.00

Trade sources
*Price valuations new crop

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