Peanuts: fierce competition

Price trends under pressure

The Indian peanut market is currently under selling pressure and has been recording falling prices for several weeks. According to market players, several factors point to further price corrections in the coming months. Demand for high-quality seed is waning, as purchases in this sector are largely complete, which has led to a significant slowdown in trading on Gujarat’s key spot markets.

Supply remains sufficient

Further uncertainty stems from Indonesia’s lack of import quotas for Indian exporters, as well as from the impact on the oil market of the new palm oil blending requirements in the fuel sector. At the same time, Sudan, Senegal and Argentina are offering peanuts at significantly lower prices than India. In addition, cold stores remain well stocked with carry-over stocks. Even small price rises could therefore bring additional volumes onto the market and limit upward movements. Although reports suggest the crop in Uttar Pradesh could be up to 20% lower, no supply shortage is expected. Overall, prices are currently trading within a narrow range as long as there is no significant increase in international demand. Peanuts, Bold, 40–50 in non-EU quality are currently trading at USD 1,245/mt FOB India.

Argentinian producers are adapting

In Argentina, stocks from the 2025 crop have largely been sold off by most exporters, according to the experts at HT NUTS. Only limited quantities of older, lower-quality produce remain available, which are being offered at reduced prices to make way for the new crop.

For the 2026 crop, the market is adapting to changes in production structures. Following two years of low producer margins, production is now primarily in the hands of large processors, whilst many processors who entered the market at short notice have left. Furthermore, aflatoxin controls in the EU have been tightened, leading to increased requirements for quality assurance and process control. At the same time, higher production and logistics costs, as well as exchange rate effects, are weighing on competitiveness. These factors are causing prices to converge towards historical average levels.

Hardly any long-term contracts being signed in Brazil

According to HT NUTS, the Brazilian peanut market is currently quiet. Extensive pre-sales and ongoing discrepancies between growers’ asking prices and processors’ purchase prices are holding back trading activity. Against this backdrop, exporters are largely limiting new contracts to short-term delivery periods of two to three months. The export advantage for Brazil resulting from the delayed harvest in Argentina is gradually diminishing. How quickly exports can be expanded depends largely on whether the existing price differences between producers and processors can be resolved.

Expensive US peanuts

Following an improvement in weather conditions, price expectations for the 2025 crop in the US have eased slightly, as market experts further report. In the export market, however, US peanuts remain at a higher price level compared with competing countries of origin. At the same time, weak domestic demand is weighing on the market and contributing to expectations of rising stock levels.

For the 2026 crop, rainfall has improved sowing conditions in key growing regions, although work remains slightly behind schedule. The coming months are considered crucial for determining the final acreage. Rising input costs, inflationary pressures and limited competitiveness in the export market continue to hamper the profitability of peanut cultivation. Farmers are therefore also considering alternative crops before making decisions regarding their acreage.

Improved weather conditions in China

In China, sowing for the 2026 crop is largely complete, with only minor increases in acreage reported. Weather conditions in the main growing regions have improved following recent rainfall, alleviating earlier concerns about drought. Domestic demand in China remains a key factor influencing the global peanut market. Changes in consumption patterns can have a direct impact on the global supply situation and, consequently, on pricing in the main exporting countries, according to HT NUTS.

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