Peanuts: too optimistic?
June 16, 2025 at 10:08 AM ,
Der AUDITOR
Vacuum in India
Peanuts are displaying little strength in India at present and market sentiments are apprehensive. The reduction in the import duty on edible oils has created a vacuum in the peanut trade. Yet, the duty was only reduced for crude and not for refined oils. This step will certainly curtail the prices of edible oils by quite a margin. NAFED and other government organisations are also selling peanuts, but their elevated prices are just temporary prompted by demand for sowing. As soon as there is less demand for sowing, these prices will be slashed by 3-4 %. This will in turn distort local trade.
India has, in addition, witnessed a massive inflow of edible oils in the previous months despite of high import duties. In May, for instance, Malaysia shipped 288,000 mt of palm oil to the country, which is clearly up on the 204,000 mt registered in April. International competition is also fierce with the new crops arriving in Argentina and Brazil. Advice for buyers is to desist from purchases in the next week or two as the inflow of the summer crop is increasing and there is no visible demand.
|
Peanuts, with skin |
|
|
Type |
USD/mt |
|
Bold, 40-50 |
1,190 |
|
Bold, 50-60 |
1,150 |
|
Bold, 60-70 |
1,135 |
|
Java, 50-60 |
1,245 |
|
Java, 60-70 |
1,160 |
|
Java, 70-80 |
1,165 |
|
FOB India |
|
Argentina too optimistic?
As suppliers in Argentina report international demand for the South American crop is rather limited at the start of the season. Many buyers are still holding large inventories and are waiting for more competitive prices to emerge. Persistent rains have not only raised concerns about yields but have also delayed harvesting, transportation and drying of the new crop. Some exporters have seized the opportunity to clear out carry-over supplies from last year’s crop at discounted rates with Chinese oil processors showing an interest. Although yields will certainly fall short of expectations, projections still stand at 1.65 million mt. Aflatoxin levels are reportedly low and continue to be monitored. Quotations for the 2025 crop range at USD 1,500/mt CFR European Main Ports.
Alarming situation in Brazil
In Brazil, harvesting is on the verge of completion. Production estimates stand at 1.17 million mt this season, which marks a 60% rise on last season and has nearly doubled on 2020. However, only limited EU-grade supplies are available, and exporters have turned to other destinations. With prices being low and costs high the market situation is far from encouraging for exporters and producers with some finding themselves in financial trouble. This may very well prompt production to decline in future.
Drought still an issue in US
US farmers are still in the process of planting the new crop. While recent rains have made work easier in the Southeast, drought is still a problem in South Texas. Limited volumes of the new crop are on offer at very low prices with shellers keen to reduce inventories and further declines anticipated. The standoff between Isreal and Iran, Trump’s tariff policy and fierce global competition have rendered export demand highly uncertain. Much will depend on China.
China gains in US markets
China’s inshell exports are gaining market shares in important destinations for US Virginia peanuts. Planting has nearly been completed, and the planted area should rise by 10%. The arrival of warm weather is prompting stockists to place their inventories into cold warehouses and to shell peanuts to avoid storage costs, which caused a temporary price hike for inshells.
View more
- price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
- price chart peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
- price charts for nuts, dried fruit, oilseeds and many more products
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