Pine nuts: supply contractions drive market
December 9, 2025 at 1:10 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
Sharp dent in production
Global in-shell pine nut production has declined by 28%. Mainly driver is the downturn in China with production falling 29% behind last year as recent INC estimates indicate. By contrast, production has risen by 16% in the Mediterranean, mainly due to Turkey. Kernel production has dipped by 18%, from 44,840 mt in 2024/2025 to 36,702 mt in 2025/2026. Total in-shell supplies range 18% lower at 164,600 mt and total kernel supplies 10% lower at 46,559 mt.
Large downturn in China
These contractions, especially in China, have driven up raw material prices as the Chinese Chamber of Commerce points out. Production in Russia may range 20% higher than last year, yet initial estimates had to be revised downwards as weather conditions were unfavourable. Cones fell prematurely in many places. Expectation, however, is that a bumper crop will materialise next year.
Turkey as exception
Production has risen sharply in Turkey, unlike in most Mediterranean countries. In Italy, the extreme heat witnessed in late August and early September impacted the cones on the trees and collection started in October. Wildfires also impacted production in Spain with around 16,000 ha of pine forest area lost to the flames. Reduced yields also drove up market prices to new highs.
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Global pine nut production (mt) |
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|
Asia (Pinus koraiensis, P. sibirica, P yunnanensis, P. gerardiana) |
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|
Country |
2024/25 |
2025/26 |
Diff. |
|
China |
111,500 |
62,400 |
-44.0% |
|
North Korea |
30,000 |
20,000 |
50.0% |
|
Russia (Siberia) |
15,000 |
18,000 |
20.0% |
|
Afghanistan |
2,300 |
7,800 |
239.1% |
|
Pakistan |
800 |
5,200 |
550.0% |
|
Mongolia |
7,000 |
4,500 |
-35.7% |
|
Subtotal |
166,600 |
117,900 |
-29.2% |
|
Mediterranean (Pinus pinea) |
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|
Turkey |
5,450 |
7,600 |
39.4% |
|
Italy |
650 |
500 |
-23.1% |
|
Portugal |
500 |
60 |
-88.0% |
|
Spain |
500 |
50 |
-90.0% |
|
Others |
330 |
380 |
15.2% |
|
Subtotal |
7,405 |
8,590 |
16.0% |
|
Total |
175,005 |
126,490 |
-27.7% |
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China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Foodstuffs and other INC sources, in-shell basis |
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