Rapeseed: Implementing a short-term local strategic refocus, producers hope to parry negative, regional medium-term effects
January 5, 2018 at 4:19 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. Non-EU producers of rapeseed, who import the crop in the markets of the Union, and the projected backdrop in the demand for rapeseed oil for the production of biodiesel during the medium-term, seem to already trickle down their pressing effects on local planting strategies. Who could have downplayed the Ukrainian rapeseed export potential during this marketing season when the country had realized an output of 2.1 mmt, according to the most recent USDA report on World Agricultural Production? Such `a number has long loomed as a threat to other regional market players since the majority of the output is exported to foreign markets, as the EU being the major destination. In addition, manufacturers, who used to rely heavily on rapeseed for the production of biodiesel, seem set to switch to alternatives in the medium-term. All that seem to have sent a clear signal to local farmers to cut down on planting.
Rapeseed: to be, or not to be: that is the question!
According to the most recently released data by the Ministry of Agriculture, estimates of planted acreages with rapeseed came to 172,659 ha, which is by 7% lower than cultivated land from last year. Do really local farmers need to curb their cultivation strategies as the country is relatively a minor producer of the crop, and the greater part of the local output is exported on an annual basis quite soon after harvest ends? For instance, by the 22nd of December 2017, the country exported 90.56% of its output – 458,110 mt, as the majority (91.93%) of shipped quantities abroad reached EU markets. That is the question: to be or not to be investing in the cultivation of more rapeseed land or continue cutting back on planting in the short-term to reflect medium-term prospects on the demand side of the market.
However, although farmers sowed 172,659 ha of rapeseed for the next season, they have entered the winter season, which so far has been quite mild with unusually for the time high temperatures. Although the crop looks good in the fields, overall in all regions, a severe weather, characterized by low temperatures and lack of thick snow later in the year, could turn the wind against farmers. A case in point, before harvest 2017-18, fallen through acreages of rapeseed, because of harsh winter conditions (and dry weather in the central South and Southwest – two regions that produce the smallest quantities of rapeseed), accounted to 20,887 ha, according to local authorities. Reducing planted acreages for next year, farmers already down beaten prospects for a stronger harvest, ceteris paribus, while they are standing before an unfolding Winter, which could take its toll or be auspicious for them. Godspeed!
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