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Rapeseed: Regional developments influence local market trends

November 23, 2017 at 12:48 PM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. The sluggish export activities will most probably slip into next year

BULGARIA. The most recent estimates of planted acreages with rapeseed, according to local authorities, came to 169,733 ha, which on an annual basis is down by 0.5%. So far in the month, and after the recent snow, the crops look good in the fields. However, the fields are yet to experience the harshness of the upcoming Winter season; and, if historical experience could serve as a warning, last season’s fallen through acreages of rapeseed, at the beginning of harvest, stood at 24,618 ha because of the adverse weather conditions.

Rapeseed: no drastic change on the export fronts in the foreseeable future

The surplus supply and strong exports within the Black sea region this season have influenced the local rate of shipped volumes abroad, as well as prices, since early in the marketing year. In Ukraine, according to a recent USDA report on World Agricultural Production, aggregate output has been estimated at 2.10 mmt or 68% higher on a year-to-year basis. As a result, local exports to the world have consistently lagged behind.

       Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 17.11.2017)

            units in MT

Beginning availability

25,000

Aggregate output

458,110

Imports

27,655

Domestic consumption

32,000

   oil & biodiesel production

32,000

Exports to the world

352,561

   to EU markets

331,265

   to rest of the world

21,296

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

For instance, by the 17th of November 2017, shipped volumes abroad reached 352,561 mt while by that time last year, exports came to 465,766 mt; the difference is 24.31% in favor of last year, according to local authorities. There are not market indicators to challenge the prevailing local sentiment that, most probably, exports will maintain the subdued trend, going into 2018.

On a weekly basis, domestic demand goes by a few metric tons, as by the end of last season, total domestic consumption reached 82,600 mt.

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