Rapeseed: A success left behind, what is to come?
April 27, 2018 at 12:57 PM ,
Starry Night Ltd.
BULGARIA. The recent temperatures have been higher than the threshold usual for the Spring season. The lack of even intermittent showers throughout the majority of regions in the country might seem to be the major external foe right now, but such meteorological conditions pave the way for another environmental hit. With two months left before the usual start of harvest 2018-19, farmers know they enter the time of hailstorms. From now on, the weather is the major external risk factor, directly influencing the growing conditions of crops, that could negatively impact farmers’ yields and consequently their outputs.
Rapeseed: A strong season left behind
Although harvest 2017-18 accounted to 458,110 mt, falling short of harvest 2016-17 by close to 10% because of lower combined areas, up-to-date total exports represent a share of 93.53% out of national output. Since internal processing of rapeseed is limited, the great majority of the crop is exported; as the highest quantities go to the markets of the EU such as Belgium, Germany and France, among others. Shipped volumes to the EU market represent 91.02% of total exports, as the rest is shipped to non-EU destinations.
|
Harvest 2017-18 (01.07.2017 – 20.04.2018) units in MT |
|
|
Beginning availability |
25,000 |
|
Aggregate output |
458,110 |
|
Imports |
32,655 |
|
Domestic consumption |
55,200 |
|
oil & biodiesel production |
55,200 |
|
Exports to the world |
428,461 |
|
to EU markets |
389,965 |
|
to rest of the world |
38,496 |
Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture
The rate of rapeseed’s exports usually skyrockets during the few months after harvest, and then suddenly levels off as remaining reserves swiftly dwindle, leaving the probabilities of sudden markets swings, depending on international contract obligations and local prices, to err on the side of chance. The country is a dwarf producer and therefore an exporter of the crop within the Black sea basin; while in the short-term, it seems destined to remain so since local sentiments do not forecast major shifts in cultivation strategies. Anyhow, in comparison with all other locally cultivated and mainly exported crops such as wheat, corn, and barley, for instance, rapeseed’s exports still take the first place in relative terms – wheat’s exports lead in absolute terms. Currently, all eyes are on the upcoming harvest.
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