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Wheat: Prices keep firm against disquieting regional developments

December 14, 2017 at 10:39 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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SOFIA. The high quality characteristics of grains maintain the export rate high. Strong domestic and foreign demands support prices.

Wheat: strong exports prevail against disquieting regional developments

BULGARIA. So far in the marketing season, shipped quantities to EU markets reached 2,477,312 mt, which on a year-to-year basis lead those of last year at that time of the season by 31.36%, according to local authorities. The high quality characteristics of this year’s grains and weaker harvests in some EU members boost export activities. Big local traders forecast the buoyant export rate to keep its momentum at least till the end of February 2018.

However, it is sent volumes to countries outside the EU that lag substantially behind: for instance, by the 9th of December 2016, shipped quantities to third world countries reached 910,404 mt, which is higher by 59.81% from these of the current season, according to the Ministry of Agriculture. Major reasons for such a decline are the powers Russian and Ukrainian wheats have over such markets, and the willingness of local exporters to deal preferably with EU clients.

       Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 08.12.2017)

           units in MT

Beginning availability

179,000

Aggregate output

5,900,000

Imports

40,995

Domestic consumption

849,600

   food

436,000

   feed

218,000

   Seeds

180,000

   industrial usage

15,000

Exports to the world

2,843,201

   to EU markets

2,477,312

   to rest of the world

365,889

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

According to the recent USDA report on Grains: World Markets and Trade, this year’s aggregate output of Russian wheat has come to 83 mmt (2016-17: 72.5 mmt) while its forecasted exports could well reach 33.5 mmt (2016-17: 27.8 mmt). Both numbers are substantial and the influence such quantities will exert on regional prices and market preferences are, realistically speaking, heavy. With the bumper crop in Russia, the country will most probably regain its leading position on the global export market.

However, local prices stand firm and so far in the marketing season do no crumble under the expected pressure. In addition, global declining price trends seem, so far, to have lost their hold on entangling local prices of wheat downward, which have pulsated to their own market beat for quite a time.

Wheat, Bulgaria

Type

EUR/kg

milling wheat

0.145

feed wheat

0.139

EXW Bulgaria

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