Almond: a nuts has potential for Price hike in coming days
August 1, 2017 at 8:59 AM ,
Rainbow Exports
Market Perspective July Shipment:
June 2017 shipments for the California almond industry reached a new record for the month at over 177 million lbs, an increase of 3 million lbs from the June 2016 record. The strong shipment number puts the industry in position to drop below last year’s ending inventory of 412 million lbs. Throughout the 2016 crop, California has shipped and committed 300 million lbs more than prior year, a 15.6% increase.
U.S demand was a record 65 million lbs and will finish in July at an all-time high for the year. Demand has bounced back significantly with the stable pricing experienced on the 2016 crop. All major geographies have experienced significant growth this crop year, including China, India, the rest of Asia-Pacific, EU and the Middle East.
(Figure:1 attached)
The strong shipments, coupled with the NASS Objective Estimate of 2.250 billion lbs released on July 6th, indicate the 2017 crop will be one of modest supply increase.
Market Perspective June Shipment:
July shipments appear on track to deliver another year-over-year monthly increase.
With the publication of the NASS Objective Estimate, new crop business inquiries are emerging in markets worldwide.
With strong closing 2016 crop shipments and a NASS estimate on the low side of expectations, prices are likely to be firm over the next several months.
The NASS Objective Estimate of 2.250 billion lbs is at the lower end of the range expected by the California almond industry. Although the bloom was difficult, the tree nut count was lower than expected.
While the 2.250 billion lbs would represent a record crop, we enter the 2017 crop year experiencing robust demand growth that would quickly consume the projected 115 million lb and 5% increase in crop.
(Figure:2 attached)
Reasons for the positive outlook on worldwide demand include:
Consumers continue to appreciate and enjoy the health and nutritional benefits of almonds.
Almonds are competitively priced as the most affordable tree nut
Stable prices those are affordable for buyers and reasonable for sellers.
Broad based growth in consumption exists across every major geographic region
Significant R&D investment with many new products containing almonds.
Long term supply scenario indicates continued supply availability
Market Perspective for July:–
Strong late season shipments of 2016 crop is reducing projected ending inventory close to 400 million lbs.
With both 2016 carry-out inventory and the 2017 Objective Estimate at the lower end of expectations, the short term outlook is for stable to firming pricing.
View related articles
