Grains - Grain Products

Cereals daily: bad weather conditions in Ukraine

July 8, 2020 10:52 AM, Der AUDITOR
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CHICAGO/PARIS. Market and price trends with first estimates, including harvest results from France and Ukraine.

Wheat: Agreste confirms lower crop
The wheat markets showed some significant price gains. In France, Agreste dominated the Western European market with a further reduction in the wheat forecast to 31.3 million metric tonnes, a good 21% below last year. The ministry reckoned an acreage of 4.41 million hectares and a yield of 7.11 mt/ha. Egypt bought 230,000 metric tonnes of wheat from Russia, Ukraine and Romania at prices ranging from USD 216.24 to 219.14 per metric tonne Cost & Freight. France could not keep up with this price. The EU exported 34.6 million metric tonnes in the last season, which was 68% more than last year and should not be reached in the new season. In Ukraine, thunderstorms and rain have affected the wheat harvest, which could lead to a loss of quality there. ProAgro lowered its forecast for the Ukrainian wheat crop to 26.06 million mt. Moscow estimated the export potential for wheat at 35 million metric tonnes, a good 1.5 million metric tonnes above last year. Local mills and the baking industry show little interest in buying at the current price level. Demand remains the key to further price development.

Wheat (front month)

CBoT (USD/bu)

492.25

0.5 %

MATIF (EUR/mt)

184.75

1.2 %

Black Sea (USD/mt)

198.50

-0.2 %

Wheat spot market

Milling wheat (12/220/76)

Parity

EUR/mt

Diff. EUR/mt

Rouen FOB

214.51

4.60

Hamburg DDP*

185.00

0.00

Rhineland DDP*

184.00

0.00

Neuss DDP*

182.00

0.00

Upper Rhine Region FOB*

178.00

0.00

Feed wheat (72/73)

Netherlands CIF*

186.00

0.00

Creil FOB*

178.00

2.00

South Oldenburg DDP*

186.00

0.00

Westphalia DDP*

184.00

0.00

Upper Rhine Region FOB*

176.00

0.00

Trade sources
*Price valuations for the new crop

Corn: analysts expect supply corrections 

The US corn market has been rowing back again due to the weather conditions. Despite reports of heat in the Corn Belt, heavy rainfall is expected, which suggests better growth conditions. With a view to the WASDE report on Friday, analysts reckon that the US corn harvest will decrease due to a smaller acreage. They also expect a 4% decline in world corn supplies, which could lead to firmer corn prices in Chicago. US ethanol processing is expected to be slightly higher in the afternoon. On the French spot market, corn showed a firmer trend this morning.

Corn (front month)

CBoT (USD/bu)

343.50

-1.5 %

Matif (EUR/mt)

171.75

1.3 %

Corn - physical market

Grain maize (commercial)

Parity

EUR/mt

Diff. EUR/mt

Bordeaux FOB

165.00

2.00

South Holland CIF

186.00

0.00

South Oldenburg DDP

190.00

0.00

Brake FOT

193.00

0.00

Westphalia DDP

192.00

0.00

Upper Rhine Region FOB

182.00

0.00

Trade sources

 

DDGS (front month)

Parity

EUR/mt

Diff. EUR/mt

Zeitz EXW

183.00

1.00

Trade sources

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