Nuts

Peanuts: China is decisive

November 21, 2022 at 10:01 AM , Der AUDITOR
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NEW DELHI. While the peanut market recently witnessed a bullish trend in India, the situation has now changed. Issue is that arrivals have picked up. Demand and China’s interest in buying peanut oil will, however, largely determine prices in the next few weeks.

Sharp decline in yields

A massive inflow of peanuts at all spot markets stopped the recent price rise in its tracks and prompted the market to display stability again. As the Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC) estimates total production at 6.83 million mt arrivals will continue to be intense in the next three to four weeks.

Heavy rainfalls have, however, prompted yields to decline by 30% in Kutch, a district in the state of Gujarat. As peanuts are still available the local oil industry can continue working for now but will require purchases from other districts in a few weeks' time for which long-distance transport costs prevail. Grammage has also declined sharply in South Gujarat. While grammage ranged at 200 gm per nut last season it has now declined to 132-135 gm. Local traders expect the entire yields to be transferred to the oil producing factories.

Sluggish demand

Although demand is high for superior seeds for sowing in southern India, this is no match to the high influx of supplies. Retail demand has also been sluggish in the past twelve weeks. China is also not prepared to buy at higher rates and is still offering relatively fixed prices of around USD 1,900 for peanut oil. Exporters assert that China has already bought large volumes in Senegal and Sudan, where no import duties apply. The country will, however, require more peanut oil very soon and is expected to step up buying in December again. Prices should, therefore, remain firm in the next two weeks.

Peanuts, with skin

Type

USD/mt

Bold, 40-50

1,305

Bold, 50-60

1,270

Bold, 60-70

1,255

Java, 50-60

1,365

Java, 60-70

1,295

Java, 70-80

1,285

FOB India, non-EU quality

 

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price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
price chart peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
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