Nuts

Peanuts: opinions differ

July 18, 2022 11:10 AM, Der AUDITOR
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NEW DELHI. Although monsoon rainfall has picked up in Gujarat, traders and farmers disagree over the prospects for the state’s peanut crop. Indonesia’s temporary removal of the export levy for palm oil will also impact peanuts.

Conflicting statements over new crop

According to Gujarat's agricultural ministry sowing is progressing much slower than last year meaning that yields should range nearly 34% lower. Traders, by contrast, expect yields to rise and claim that Gujarat will not require any imports from other states such as Uttar Pradesh in the new season. Truth, however, is that market analysts cannot make any clear predictions at present. Although good rainfall was reported last week, farmers anticipated earlier rains. Sowing may very well gain momentum in the next one to two weeks depending on the weather.

Palm oil only has limited impact

Indonesia’s decision to suspend the export levy for palm oil between 15 July and 31 August coupled with the mandate to produce 40% of biodiesel from palm oil will also impact peanuts. Issue is that the country’s temporary export ban on palm oil prompted stocks to pile up and the country is now desperate to sell. The recent decisions, however, show that supplies are still not moving to the desired degree.

Although palm oil imports may indeed disrupt the peanut market to a certain extent, analysts reckon that prices will rise in the short and long run. Issue is that domestic peanut oil consumption is high and local spot market demand for peanuts is slowly increasing in India driven by oil producing companies. Prices have, however remained firm so far and weekly arrivals currently range at 13,991 mt mainly supplied by Uttar Pradesh.

Peanuts, with skin

Type

USD/mt

Bold, 40-50

1,295

Bold, 50-60

1,260

Bold, 60-70

1,245

Java, 50-60

1,380

Java, 60-70

1,310

Java, 70-80

1,300

FOB India, non-EU quality

 

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price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
price chart peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
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