Nuts

Peanuts: projections fail farmers

November 20, 2023 at 12:10 PM , Der AUDITOR
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NEW DELHI. Official estimates in India may only project a marginal decline in winter peanut production, but disaster has struck for many famers in Andhra Pradesh. Demand is also leaving much to be desired in China and Europe.

Incredibly upbeat projections

Drought caused by monsoon failure has left farmers destitute in the districts of Anantapur and Puttaparthi in Andhra Pradesh. Things did not go well here as they planted peanuts on around 4,600 acres and spent around Rs 30,000-40,000 per acre. While they normally manage to get 18 to 22 bags per acre, they can only collect two to three bags this year. Judging by the local impact of these monsoon failures it seems quite incredible that official projections estimate national production only marginally lower than last year.

At the end of October, the Indian Oilseeds and Produce Export Promotion Council (IOPEPC) pegged the 2023 kharif production at 6.857 million mt as local media report. The area sown covers 4.391 million ha and average yields stand at 1,562 kg/ha. These estimates trail the Ministry of Agriculture’s first advance estimates that projected a higher production of 7.830 million mt, which is only 8.5% down on last year’s 8.560 million mt.

The IOPEPC survey comprised India’s seven key producing states with Gujarat accounting for 48% (3.325 million mt), Rajasthan for 23% (1.553 million mt) and Madhya Pradesh for 12% (837,150 mt), followed by Uttar Pradesh with 2.7% (189,226 mt). Karnataka, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh jointly contributed 8.4% or 577,656 mt.

Trading revives

As most markets remained closed due to Diwali trading was very much subdued last week, but prices have now resumed a downward trend. Traders report that the Java variety, 50-60, from the new winter crop is trading at USD 1,367/mt FOB Gujarat.

Peanuts, new winter crop

Java

USD/mt

50-60

1,367

80-90

1,295

TJ

50-60

1,235

80-90

1,155

Bold

40-50

1,210

50-60

1,180

FOB Gujarat

Demand leaves much to be desired

US suppliers are far from satisfied with exports. Reports state that shipments to China, Japan and Canada along with Europe were reduced in October. The market situation in the EU is far from good and chances are that shipments will slump in the next few months. Bad news is also that supplies are limited in Argentina.

Despite it being impossible to obtain large volumes in Sudan, importers in China are not interested in buying from India. Prediction is that prices will drop another 10% in November. Competitive prices may also boost China’s exports.

 

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price chart, peanuts, with skin, 40/50, Bold, India
price chart peanuts, with skin, 50/60, Java, India
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