Grains - Grain Products

Wheat: markets tend to be firmer again

June 18, 2020 at 1:15 PM, Der AUDITOR
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FRANKFURT. The wheat markets showed a slight upward trend at midday. Good harvest progress in the USA, but record levels of new coronavirus infections are weighing on the market. Crop expectations remain higher on the Black Sea, and Ukraine's export prospects are better than feared.

In the USA, good harvest weather and comparatively higher yields in the southern areas of Kansas were the main reasons for weaker share price performance in Chicago. Also record high new infections with the coronavirus in the six US states of Arizona, Florida, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas and Nevada burdened the market, the governors of the states could again impose economically restrictive measures in the fight against the pandemic. The focus was also on the crops of the Black Sea region. Russia's grain exports will only be subject to export quotas in the second half of the season, which Moscow wants to set in December. With a wheat crop of 75 million metric tonnes estimated by Russia's export association, analysts are predicting a wheat crop of 77 to 78 million metric tonnes, this means an increase of 1.9% over last year, if not even more and thus higher export pressure than last year. At 68 million metric tonnes, the Ukrainian grain crop is expected to miss last year's result of 75.8 million metric tonnes by 10.3%. At the same time, the Ukraine Grain Association (UGA) expects exports to be around 20.5 million metric tonnes. Wheat is not in short supply in the Black Sea region.

Wheat, daily price development

Milling wheat (12/220/76)

Parity

EUR/mt

Diff. EUR/mt

Rouen, FOB

-

-

Creil, FOB

-

-

Hamburg, DDP

188.00

-

Rhineland, DDP

187.00

-

Neuss, DDP

182.00

-

Upper Rhine Region, FOB

179.00

-

Feed wheat (72/73)

Netherlands, CIF

185.00

-

South Oldenburg, DDP

185.00

-

Hamburg, DDP

188.00

 

Westphalia, DDP

185.00

-

Upper Rhine Region, FOB

175.00

-

Trade sources

Influence of high pressure soon ensures dry and warm weather again
The Egyptian GASC has announced a wheat tender for 55,000 to 60,000 metric tonnes of common wheat. Ethiopia wants to buy 400,000 metric tonnes of milling wheat. Tunisia and Jordan are also waiting for better price opportunities for wheat imports. The DRV expects a German wheat crop of 22.21 million metric tonnes, which is 3.7% less than last year. The market is focusing on the new crop, with a mixture of irregular rain and sunshine expected over the next few days, before a weak high pressure ridge forms at the weekend, which is expected to continue until next week. This means a somewhat earlier wheat harvest. The trade expects rather heterogeneous qualities due to different water supply of the soils, which can be estimated geographically via precipitation and dry index maps. The new crop for milling and feed wheat is currently valued by the trade at EUR 12 to 15 metric tonnes below the current June prices.

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