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Rapeseed: Local prices are at the mercy of regional ones

August 29, 2017 at 7:17 AM , Starry Night Ltd.
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Regional market trends are expected to influence local prices in the long-term.

SOFIA. Production of rapeseed from harvest 2017-18 came short (by 10.06%) this year. As a result, the final estimate of aggregate output, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, stands at 458,005 mt. Current prices still experience some fluctuating movements, depending on export activities, although medium-term ones would most probably slide on a downward trajectory.

Rapeseed: Europe remains the main export market

EU member countries continue to be the main buyers of locally grown rapeseed. By the 18th of August 2017, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, shipments to European markets reached 119,750 mt while those to the rest of the world amounted to 21,276 mt.

Harvest 2017-18

(01.07.2017 - 18.08.2017)

Carry over

25,000 mt

Domestic output

458,005 mt

Domestic consumption

11,200 mt

Exports to the world

141,026 mt

Source: Bulgarian Ministry of Agriculture

However, exports via sea routes lag behind on a year-to-year basis. By the end of the third week of the month, via Varna seaport went only 17,082 mt while last year by that time, the figure was 67,972 mt. Anyhow, before the month reaches it send, exports via marine routes will increase since ships have been at ports, uploading the crop.

When medium-term concerns grow into long-term ones

According to a recent USDA report on World Agricultural Production, Ukraine will realize 2.1 mmt of rapeseed, which represents a substantial increase from last year’s 1.25 mmt. Such a bumper production, on the background of already mounting export activities from the country, will definitely influence its shipment volumes abroad throughout the whole season. As a result, local market sellers once again will have to adapt to regional market trends. The threat is no longer a medium-term; it is a long-term one since Ukraine’s exports are expected to grow substantially during this marketing season.

 Rapeseed, Bulgaria

Crop

EUR/kg

rapeseed

0.350

EXW Bulgaria

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