Wheat: retail sales still at risk
May 28, 2020 at 1:11 PM ,
Der AUDITOR
At noon, US wheat in Chicago was trading at USD 5.07 per bushel, 0.6% lower than yesterday. In Paris, wheat fell by 1.1% to EUR 186.25 per metric tonne on the front, but stopped at EUR 203.50 per metric tonne in the Black Sea reagion. The weather and price development at the Black Sea remains speculative. After rainfall, also in the critical "dry zones" in eastern Ukraine and southern Russia, meteorologists are announcing abundant rainfall for two weeks, which would benefit the yield. However, the government in Moscow has reduced the Russian grain crop by 5.3 million metric tonnes to 120 million metric tonnes, compared to 121.2 million metric tonnes last year. The price driver was analyst ICAR, who had reduced Russia's wheat crop from 77.2 million metric tonnes to 76.2 million metric tonnes. In the Ukraine, APK-Inform expects the Ukrainian wheat crop to decline to between 24 and 25 million metric tonnes, compared to 28.3 million metric tonnes last year. The trade is angry that Ukraine is exporting 20.2 million metric tonnes of wheat without the state-imposed export restriction, which has put the reliability of Ukrainian decisions into question.
Wheat, daily price development
|
Milling wheat (12/220/76) |
||
|
Parity |
EUR/mt |
Diff. |
|
Rouen, FOB |
189.00 |
-1.00 |
|
Creil, FOB |
177.00 |
-1.00 |
|
Hamburg, DDP |
202.00 |
0.00 |
|
Westphalia, DDP |
199.00 |
0.00 |
|
Rhineland, DDP |
199.00 |
0.00 |
|
Upper Rhine Region, FOB |
191.00 |
0.00 |
|
Feed wheat (72/73) |
||
|
Parity |
EUR/mt |
Diff. |
|
Netherlands, CIF |
200.00 |
0.00 |
|
South Oldenburg, DDP |
202.00 |
1.00 |
|
Westphalia, DDP |
200.00 |
1.00 |
|
Upper Rhine Region, FOB |
190.00 |
0.00 |
|
Trade sources |
||
HDE warns of heavy losses in retail trade
In north-eastern France, northern Germany, the UK and western Poland, it remained too dry even during the course of the May. In Western Europe, the market has to adjust to lower wheat supplies north of Paris and in Northern Germany, while there should be ample supplies in the South. The price gap between the old and new wheat crop has shrunk to EUR 5 per metric tonne. Declining sales in the retail sector continue to cause concern. Stephan Tromp, deputy managing director of the German Retail Association (HDE), said that consumers were currently no longer willing to spend money. Accordingly, the retail sector is expected to lose at least EUR 40 billion in 2020 compared to last year, which would correspond to 10 to 15% of total retail sales and would put stationary retail in dire straits. However, the industry is hoping for an easing of the situation and further easing of the lockdown before the summer.
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